You can also download the pdf of the conference guide with the updated program here: conference guide (3.7MB, last update 24 June 2016 9:30 am).

June 22, 2016
13:30 to 13:45 Welcome, AULA MAGNA
13:45 to 14:45 Plenary Session I (IAAE Lecture) , AULA MAGNA
15:00 to 16:20 Parallel Sessions I
16:20 to 16:50 Coffee/Tea Break , LOBBY
16:50 to 18:10 Parallel Sessions II
18:15 to 21:30 Special Keynote Lecture I & Welcome Cocktail Reception , AULA MAGNA & LOBBY
June 23, 2016
09:00 to 10:00 Plenary Session II , AULA MAGNA
10:00 to 10:30 Coffee/Tea Break, LOBBY
10:30 to 11:50 Parallel Sessions III
12:00 to 13:00 Plenary Session III , AULA MAGNA
13:00 to 14:15 Lunch, LOBBY
13:30 to 14:15 Poster Sessions I, LOBBY
14:15 to 15:35 Parallel Sessions IV
15:35 to 16:10 Coffee/Tea Break, LOBBY
16:10 to 17:30 Parallel Sessions V
17:30 to 18:15 IAAE General Meeting, AULA MAGNA
18:15 to 21:30 Special Keynote Lecture II & Apericena (Cocktail Dinner), AULA MAGNA & LOBBY
June 24, 2016
09:00 to 10:00 Plenary Session IV , AULA ,AH AULA MAGNA
10:00 to 10:30 Coffee/Tea Break, LOBBY
10:30 to 11:50 Parallel Sessions VI
12:00 to 13:00 Plenary Session V, AULA MAGNA
13:00 to 14:15 Lunch, LOBBY
13:30 to 14:15 Poster Session II, LOBBY
14:15 to 15:35 Parallel Session VII
15:35 to 16:10 Coffee Break, LOBBY
16:10 to 17:30 Parallel Sessions VIII
17:45 to 22:30 Gala dinner at Museo della Scienza and Tecnologia, MUSEO DELLA SCIENZA E DELLA TECNOLOGIA
June 25, 2016
08:45 to 09:00 Concluding remarks, AULA MAGNA
09:00 to 10:00 Plenary Session VI, AULA MAGNA
10:10 to 11:30 Parallel Sessions IX
11:30 to 12:30 Brunch, LOBBY

 

 

Program Notes and Index of Sessions

Welcome
AULA MAGNA
June 22, 2016 13:30 to 13:45

Plenary Session I (IAAE Lecture)
AULA MAGNA
June 22, 2016 13:45 to 14:45
IAAE Invited Lecture: Peter CB Phillips (Yale University)

Parallel Sessions I
June 22, 2016 15:00 to 16:20
Long-term effects of early-life conditions, U6-32
Density Forecasts, U6-42
Topics in Empirical Macroeconomics (1), U6-39
Uncertainty and the Macroeconomy (1), U6-40
Topics in Bayesian Econometrics (1), U6-30
Jumps in Asset Prices, U6-34
Time Series Models (1), U6-41
Social Networks, U6-35
Consumption and Risk, U6-37
Production frontiers, U6-36
Money and the Macroeconomy (1), U6-33

Parallel Sessions II
June 22, 2016 16:50 to 18:10
Housing, Consumption & Prices, U6-42
Big Data and Factor Models, U6-33
Topics in Empirical Macroeconomics (2), U6-32
Confidence, Optimism, and Sunspots, U6-34
Term Structure of Interest Rates (1), U6-30
Breaks and Structural Change, U6-39
Bayes and Shrinkage Methods for VARs, U6-41
Panel Data Estimation, U6-40
Cognition, U6-35
Health, U6-36
Policy evaluation, U6-37
Immigration, Cultural Persistence, and Assimilation, U6-38

Special Keynote Lecture I & Welcome Cocktail Reception
AULA MAGNA & LOBBY
June 22, 2016 18:15 to 21:30
Special Keynote Lecture on the Next Convergence – Michael Spence (New York Stern…

Plenary Session II
AULA MAGNA
June 23, 2016 09:00 to 10:00
FBoF Keynote Lecture: Peter Arcidiacono (Duke University)

Parallel Sessions III
June 23, 2016 10:30 to 11:50
Measurement errors, U6-38
Topics in Monetary Policy (1), U6-41
Uncertainty and the Macroeconomy (2), U6-42
Structural VARs (1), U6-32
International Trade Dynamics, U6-34
Term Structure of Interest Rates 2, U6-30
Nowcasting, U6-33
Housing, U6-35
Earnings, U6-40
Empirical IO, U6-36
Treatment effects, U6-37
Macroeconomics and Finance, U6-39

Plenary Session III
AULA MAGNA
June 23, 2016 12:00 to 13:00
BoI – Carlo Giannini Memorial Lecture: Andrew Patton (Duke University)

Poster Sessions I
LOBBY
June 23, 2016 13:30 to 14:15
Poster session: Micro

Parallel Sessions IV
June 23, 2016 14:15 to 15:35
Advances in Econometrics, U6-41
Monetary Policy: Regimes and Forward Guidance, U6-32
Topics in Forecasting (1), U6-34
Topics in Empirical Finance (1), U6-35
Macroeconomic Forecasting, U6-33
Price Inflation (1), U6-39
DSGE Models (1), U6-40
Labor market transitions, U6-36
Economics of the Household, U6-30
Demand for Health Care, U6-37
Education, U6-38
Time Series Models (2), U6-42

Parallel Sessions V
June 23, 2016 16:10 to 17:30
Heterogeneity in Panel and Duration Data, U6-33
Exchange Rates, U6-42
Panel Data Topics and Applications, U6-39
Topics in Development and Macroeconomics, U6-34
Time Series Models (3), U6-32
Forecasting in Finance, U6-40
Volatility in Asset Prices, U6-38
Factor Models for Structural Analysis, U6-30
Organization of firms, U6-35
Evaluation studies, U6-36
Effects of Globalization, U6-37
Risk Networks, U6-32

IAAE General Meeting
AULA MAGNA
June 23, 2016 17:30 to 18:15
The IAAE Board is happy to invite conference participants to join the Annual General Meeting of the International Association for Applied Econometrics

Special Keynote Lecture II & Apericena (Cocktail Dinner)
AULA MAGNA & LOBBY
June 23, 2016 18:15 to 21:30
Special Keynote Lecture on Oil Booms and Busts and the Global Economy – Hashem P…

Plenary Session IV
AULA ,AH AULA MAGNA
June 24, 2016 09:00 to 10:00
CCA Keynote Lecture: Giorgio Primiceri (Northwestern University)

Parallel Sessions VI
June 24, 2016 10:30 to 11:50
Peer effects, U6-41
Sovereign Debt , U6-30
Business Cycle Dynamics and Volatility, U6-42
Employment and Unemployment in the Macroeconomy, U6-34
Topics in Forecasting (2), U6-35
Topics in Bayesian Econometrics (2), U6-40
Uncertainty and Policy, U6-39
Asset Prices: Tails and VaR, U6-33
Labor Supply, U6-36
Health: Policy evaluations, U6-38
Econometrics of Networks, U6-32
Long Memory, U6-37

Plenary Session V
AULA MAGNA
June 24, 2016 12:00 to 13:00
SIdE/IEA Keynote Lecture: Francesca Molinari (Cornell University)
Preference Types and Welfare in Insurance Markets, joint work with Levon Barseghyan (Cornell), Maura Coughlin (Cornell), and Joshua C. Teitelbaum (Georgetown).

Poster Session II
LOBBY
June 24, 2016 13:30 to 14:15
Poster — Macro/Finance/Time Series

Parallel Session VII
June 24, 2016 14:15 to 15:35
Credit and Microfinance, U6-35
DSGE Models (2), U6-32
Commodity Prices, U6-34
Topics in Empirical Trade, U6-36
Fiscal Policy, U6-42
Credit Risk and Liquidity, U6-30
Structural VARs (2), U6-33
Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy, U6-39
Demographics of the Household , U6-37
Regression Discontinuity Designs, U6-41
Education II, U6-38
Forecast Evaluation, U6-40

Parallel Sessions VIII
June 24, 2016 16:10 to 17:30
Advances in Econometrics II, U6-41
Monetary Policy Reaction Functions, U6-34
Time Series Models (4), U6-32
News and Uncertainty in the Macroeconomy, U6-30
Topics in Financial Econometrics (1), U6-35
Factor Models: Estimation and Inference, U6-39
Inflation Expectations and Ucertainty, U6-42
Vector Autoregressions (1), U6-33
Education: Policy Evaluations, U6-36
Bad behavior, U6-37
Dynamics of Labor Supply, U6-38
Topics in Monetary Policy (2), U6-40

Gala dinner at Museo della Scienza and Tecnologia
MUSEO DELLA SCIENZA E DELLA TECNOLOGIA
June 24, 2016 17:45 to 22:30
Buses leaving from Building U-6, exit Viale Piero and Alberto Pirelli 22 at 17:45

Concluding remarks
AULA MAGNA
June 25, 2016 08:45 to 09:00

Plenary Session VI
AULA MAGNA
June 25, 2016 09:00 to 10:00
DEMS Keynote Lecture: Aureo de Paula (University College London)

Parallel Sessions IX
June 25, 2016 10:10 to 11:30
Difference-in-differences, U6-39
Price Inflation (2), U6-41
Topics in Empirical Finance (2), U6-40
Monetary Policy: Channels of Influence
Topics in Financial Econometrics (2), U6-30
Structural VARs (3), U6-33
Inflation Dynamics, U6-42
Topics Empirical Macroeconomics (3), U6-34
Preferences and Expectations, U6-35
Heterogeneous coefficients, U6-32
Topics in Time Series and Topics in Bank Risk, U6-33 U6-37

 

Summary of All Sessions

Click here for an index of all participants

# Date/Time Location Type Title Papers
1 June 22, 2016
15:00-16:20
U6-32 contributed Long-term effects of early-life conditions 4
2 June 22, 2016
15:00-16:20
U6-37 contributed Consumption and Risk 4
3 June 22, 2016
15:00-16:20
U6-36 contributed Production frontiers 4
4 June 22, 2016
15:00-16:20
U6-35 contributed Social Networks 4
5 June 22, 2016
15:00-16:20
U6-33 contributed Money and the Macroeconomy (1) 4
6 June 22, 2016
15:00-16:20
U6-40 contributed Uncertainty and the Macroeconomy (1) 3
7 June 22, 2016
15:00-16:20
U6-30 contributed Topics in Bayesian Econometrics (1) 4
8 June 22, 2016
15:00-16:20
U6-41 contributed Time Series Models (1) 4
9 June 22, 2016
15:00-16:20
U6-39 contributed Topics in Empirical Macroeconomics (1) 4
10 June 22, 2016
15:00-16:20
U6-34 contributed Jumps in Asset Prices 4
11 June 22, 2016
15:00-16:20
U6-42 contributed Density Forecasts 3
12 June 22, 2016
16:50-18:10
U6-38 contributed Immigration, Cultural Persistence, and Assimilation 4
13 June 22, 2016
16:50-18:10
U6-36 contributed Health 4
14 June 22, 2016
16:50-18:10
U6-34 contributed Confidence, Optimism, and Sunspots 4
15 June 22, 2016
16:50-18:10
U6-30 contributed Term Structure of Interest Rates (1) 4
16 June 22, 2016
16:50-18:10
U6-33 contributed Big Data and Factor Models 4
17 June 22, 2016
16:50-18:10
U6-39 contributed Breaks and Structural Change 4
18 June 22, 2016
16:50-18:10
U6-41 contributed Bayes and Shrinkage Methods for VARs 2
19 June 22, 2016
16:50-18:10
U6-37 contributed Policy evaluation 4
20 June 22, 2016
16:50-18:10
U6-42 contributed Housing, Consumption & Prices 4
21 June 22, 2016
16:50-18:10
U6-35 contributed Cognition 4
22 June 22, 2016
16:50-18:10
U6-40 contributed Panel Data Estimation 4
23 June 22, 2016
16:50-18:10
U6-32 contributed Topics in Empirical Macroeconomics (2) 4
24 June 23, 2016
10:30-11:50
U6-37 contributed Treatment effects 4
25 June 23, 2016
10:30-11:50
U6-36 contributed Empirical IO 4
26 June 23, 2016
10:30-11:50
U6-33 contributed Nowcasting 3
27 June 23, 2016
10:30-11:50
U6-42 contributed Uncertainty and the Macroeconomy (2) 4
28 June 23, 2016
10:30-11:50
U6-32 contributed Structural VARs (1) 4
29 June 23, 2016
10:30-11:50
U6-40 contributed Earnings 4
30 June 23, 2016
10:30-11:50
U6-41 contributed Topics in Monetary Policy (1) 4
31 June 23, 2016
10:30-11:50
U6-35 contributed Housing 4
32 June 23, 2016
10:30-11:50
U6-38 contributed Measurement errors 4
33 June 23, 2016
10:30-11:50
U6-39 contributed Macroeconomics and Finance 4
34 June 23, 2016
10:30-11:50
U6-34 contributed International Trade Dynamics 4
35 June 23, 2016
10:30-11:50
U6-30 contributed Term Structure of Interest Rates 2 4
36 June 23, 2016
14:15-15:35
U6-38 contributed Education 4
37 June 23, 2016
14:15-15:35
U6-41 contributed Advances in Econometrics 4
38 June 23, 2016
14:15-15:35
U6-33 contributed Macroeconomic Forecasting 4
39 June 23, 2016
14:15-15:35
U6-35 contributed Topics in Empirical Finance (1) 4
40 June 23, 2016
14:15-15:35
U6-39 contributed Price Inflation (1) 4
41 June 23, 2016
14:15-15:35
U6-34 contributed Topics in Forecasting (1) 4
42 June 23, 2016
14:15-15:35
U6-40 contributed DSGE Models (1) 4
43 June 23, 2016
14:15-15:35
U6-32 contributed Monetary Policy: Regimes and Forward Guidance 4
44 June 23, 2016
14:15-15:35
U6-37 contributed Demand for Health Care 4
45 June 23, 2016
14:15-15:35
U6-36 contributed Labor market transitions 4
46 June 23, 2016
14:15-15:35
U6-30 contributed Economics of the Household 4
47 June 23, 2016
14:15-15:35
U6-42 contributed Time Series Models (2) 4
48 June 23, 2016
16:10-17:30
U6-30 contributed Factor Models for Structural Analysis 4
49 June 23, 2016
16:10-17:30
U6-42 contributed Exchange Rates 3
50 June 23, 2016
16:10-17:30
U6-32 contributed Time Series Models (3) 4
51 June 23, 2016
16:10-17:30
U6-40 contributed Forecasting in Finance 4
52 June 23, 2016
16:10-17:30
U6-38 contributed Volatility in Asset Prices 4
53 June 23, 2016
16:10-17:30
U6-36 contributed Evaluation studies 3
54 June 23, 2016
16:10-17:30
U6-37 contributed Effects of Globalization 4
55 June 23, 2016
16:10-17:30
U6-35 contributed Organization of firms 4
56 June 23, 2016
16:10-17:30
U6-33 contributed Heterogeneity in Panel and Duration Data 4
57 June 23, 2016
16:10-17:30
U6-32 contributed Risk Networks 4
58 June 23, 2016
16:10-17:30
U6-39 contributed Panel Data Topics and Applications 4
59 June 23, 2016
16:10-17:30
U6-34 contributed Topics in Development and Macroeconomics 4
60 June 24, 2016
10:30-11:50
U6-37 contributed Long Memory 3
61 June 24, 2016
10:30-11:50
U6-39 contributed Uncertainty and Policy 3
62 June 24, 2016
10:30-11:50
U6-35 contributed Topics in Forecasting (2) 4
63 June 24, 2016
10:30-11:50
U6-40 contributed Topics in Bayesian Econometrics (2) 3
64 June 24, 2016
10:30-11:50
U6-42 contributed Business Cycle Dynamics and Volatility 3
65 June 24, 2016
10:30-11:50
U6-34 contributed Employment and Unemployment in the Macroeconomy 4
66 June 24, 2016
10:30-11:50
U6-41 contributed Peer effects 4
67 June 24, 2016
10:30-11:50
U6-33 contributed Asset Prices: Tails and VaR 4
68 June 24, 2016
10:30-11:50
U6-38 contributed Health: Policy evaluations 4
69 June 24, 2016
10:30-11:50
U6-36 contributed Labor Supply 4
70 June 24, 2016
10:30-11:50
U6-32 contributed Econometrics of Networks 4
71 June 24, 2016
10:30-11:50
U6-30 contributed Sovereign Debt 4
72 June 24, 2016
14:15-15:35
U6-36 contributed Topics in Empirical Trade 4
73 June 24, 2016
14:15-15:35
U6-42 contributed Fiscal Policy 4
74 June 24, 2016
14:15-15:35
U6-40 contributed Forecast Evaluation 4
75 June 24, 2016
14:15-15:35
U6-32 contributed DSGE Models (2) 4
76 June 24, 2016
14:15-15:35
U6-33 contributed Structural VARs (2) 4
77 June 24, 2016
14:15-15:35
U6-30 contributed Credit Risk and Liquidity 4
78 June 24, 2016
14:15-15:35
U6-35 contributed Credit and Microfinance 4
79 June 24, 2016
14:15-15:35
U6-41 contributed Regression Discontinuity Designs 4
80 June 24, 2016
14:15-15:35
U6-39 contributed Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy 4
81 June 24, 2016
14:15-15:35
U6-37 contributed Demographics of the Household 4
82 June 24, 2016
14:15-15:35
U6-38 contributed Education II 4
83 June 24, 2016
14:15-15:35
U6-34 contributed Commodity Prices 3
84 June 24, 2016
16:10-17:30
U6-33 contributed Vector Autoregressions (1) 4
85 June 24, 2016
16:10-17:30
U6-41 contributed Advances in Econometrics II 4
86 June 24, 2016
16:10-17:30
U6-42 contributed Inflation Expectations and Ucertainty 4
87 June 24, 2016
16:10-17:30
U6-30 contributed News and Uncertainty in the Macroeconomy 3
88 June 24, 2016
16:10-17:30
U6-39 contributed Factor Models: Estimation and Inference 3
89 June 24, 2016
16:10-17:30
U6-35 contributed Topics in Financial Econometrics (1) 4
90 June 24, 2016
16:10-17:30
U6-34 contributed Monetary Policy Reaction Functions 4
91 June 24, 2016
16:10-17:30
U6-38 contributed Dynamics of Labor Supply 4
92 June 24, 2016
16:10-17:30
U6-37 contributed Bad behavior 4
93 June 24, 2016
16:10-17:30
U6-40 contributed Topics in Monetary Policy (2) 4
94 June 24, 2016
16:10-17:30
U6-36 contributed Education: Policy Evaluations 4
95 June 24, 2016
16:10-17:30
U6-32 contributed Time Series Models (4) 4
96 June 25, 2016
10:10-11:30
U6-40 contributed Topics in Empirical Finance (2) 4
97 June 25, 2016
10:10-11:30
U6-34 contributed Topics Empirical Macroeconomics (3) 4
98 June 25, 2016
10:10-11:30
U6-42 contributed Inflation Dynamics 4
99 June 25, 2016
10:10-11:30
U6-41 contributed Price Inflation (2) 4
100 June 25, 2016
10:10-11:30
U6-33 U6-37 contributed Topics in Time Series and Topics in Bank Risk 4
101 June 25, 2016
10:10-11:30
U6-33 contributed Structural VARs (3) 4
102 June 25, 2016
10:10-11:30
U6-39 contributed Difference-in-differences 4
103 June 25, 2016
10:10-11:30
U6-30 contributed Topics in Financial Econometrics (2) 4
104 June 25, 2016
10:10-11:30
N/A contributed Monetary Policy: Channels of Influence 4
105 June 25, 2016
10:10-11:30
U6-35 contributed Preferences and Expectations 4
106 June 25, 2016
10:10-11:30
U6-32 contributed Heterogeneous coefficients 4
107 June 22, 2016
13:45-14:45
N/A invited IAAE Invited Lecture: Peter CB Phillips (Yale University) 0
108 June 22, 2016
18:15-21:30
N/A invited Special Keynote Lecture on the Next Convergence – Michael Spence (New York Stern and Standford University) 0
109 June 23, 2016
9:00-10:00
N/A invited FBoF Keynote Lecture: Peter Arcidiacono (Duke University) 0
110 June 23, 2016
12:00-13:00
N/A invited BoI – Carlo Giannini Memorial Lecture: Andrew Patton (Duke University) 0
111 June 23, 2016
18:15-21:30
Aula Magna invited Special Keynote Lecture on Oil Booms and Busts and the Global Economy – Hashem Pesaran (Cambridge University & USC Dornsife) [slides] 0
112 June 24, 2016
9:00-10:00
N/A invited CCA Keynote Lecture: Giorgio Primiceri (Northwestern University) 0
113 June 24, 2016
12:00-13:00
Aula Magna invited SIdE/IEA Keynote Lecture: Francesca Molinari (Cornell University) 0
114 June 25, 2016
9:00-10:00
Aula Magna invited DEMS Keynote Lecture: Aureo de Paula (University College London) 0
115 June 23, 2016
13:30-14:15
N/A poster Poster session: Micro 11
116 June 24, 2016
13:30-14:15
N/A poster Poster — Macro/Finance/Time Series 18

 

116 sessions, 439 papers, and 0 presentations with no associated papers


IAAE 2016 Annual Conference

Detailed List of Sessions

Session 1: Long-term effects of early-life conditions
June 22, 2016 15:00 to 16:20
U6-32
Session Chair: Joachim Winter, University of Munich
Session type: contributed
Selecting (in)valid instruments for instrumental variables estimation
By Frank Windmeijer; University of Bristol
Helmut Farbmacher; Max Planck Society
Neil Davies; University of Bristol
George Davey Smith; Bristol University
Ian White; MRC Biostatistic Unit, Cambridge
   presented by: Frank Windmeijer, University of Bristol
The Early Life Origins of Chronic Disease and Economic Status: Evidence from welfare reform in early twentieth century Sweden
By Sonia Bhalotra; University of Essex UK
Martin Karlsson; University of Essen
Therese Nilsson; University of Lund
Nina Schwarz; University of Duisburg-Essen
   presented by: Sonia Bhalotra, University of Essex UK
Household choices in fragile families and their effects on children’s cognitive and non-cognitive skills
By Raul Sanchez; University of Illinois
   presented by: Raul Sanchez, University of Illinois
The E ffects of Daycare on Health in Later Childhood – Evidence by Age
By Gerard van den Berg; University of Bristol
Bettina Siflinger; University of Mannheim
   presented by: Gerard van den Berg, University of Bristol
Session 2: Consumption and Risk
June 22, 2016 15:00 to 16:20
U6-37
Session type: contributed
Consumption response to positive and negative income changes
By Philip Bunn; Bank of England
Jeanne Le Roux; Bank of England
Kate Reinold; Bank of England
Paolo Surico; London Business School
   presented by: Jeanne Le Roux, Bank of England
How Do Consumers Respond To Transitory Income Shocks? Reconciling Longitudinal Studies and Natural Experiments
By Jeanne Commault; Ecole Polytechnique
   presented by: Jeanne Commault, Ecole Polytechnique
Heterogeneity in household consumption responses: Evidence from administrative data on Norwegian lottery winners
By Andreas Fagereng; Statistics Norway
Martin Holm; BI Norwegian Business School
Gisle Natvik; BI Norwegian Business School
   presented by: Martin Holm, BI Norwegian Business School
Labor Income Risk and Falling Fertility: Evidence from German Micro Data
By Davud Rostam-Afschar; Freie Universitaet Berlin
Sebastian Schmitz; Freie Universitaet Berlin
   presented by: Davud Rostam-Afschar, Universitaet Hohenheim
Session 3: Production frontiers
June 22, 2016 15:00 to 16:20
U6-36
Session type: contributed
Productivity Analysis in the Presence of Uncertainty: A State-Contingent Stochastic Frontier Approach
By Stein Holden; norwegian university of life sciences
Christopher O’Donnell; The University of Queensland
   presented by: Christopher O’Donnell, The University of Queensland
The Impact of Class Size on Academic Underachievement: An Advanced Stochastic Frontier Approach
By Deni Mazrekaj; KU Leuven
Kristof De Witte; KU Leuven
Thomas Triebs; ifo Institute
   presented by: Deni Mazrekaj, KU Leuven
Technical efficiency for Colombian small crop and livestock farmers: A stochastic metafrontier approach for different production systems
By Ligia Melo; Banco de la Republica
Antonio Gallo; Banco de la Republica
   presented by: Ligia Melo, Banco de la Republica
Cross-Section Dependence and Latent Heterogeneity to Evaluate the Impact of Human Capital on Country Performance: a Robust Nonparametric Frontier Model
By Camilla Mastromarco; University of Salento
Léopold Simar; Université Catholique de Louvain
   presented by: Camilla Mastromarco, University of Salento
Session 4: Social Networks
June 22, 2016 15:00 to 16:20
U6-35
Session type: contributed
Don’t Talk to Strangers? Cognitive Proximity, Social Proximity and the Productivity of Mobile Inventors
By Rasmus Bode; University of Kassel
Guido Buenstorf; University of Kassel
Dominik Heinisch; University of Kassel
   presented by: Dominik Heinisch, University of Kassel
The Social Network of Money
By Boyan Bejanov; Bank of Canada
Geoffrey Dunbar; Bank of Canada
   presented by: Geoffrey Dunbar, Bank of Canada
Job networks and independent board appointments: evidence from US publicly quoted companies
By marie lalanne; Goethe University of Frankfurt, Research Center SAFE
   presented by: marie lalanne, Goethe University of Frankfurt, Research Center SAFE
Why do board interlocks arise? Identification and estimation of a static game of complete information between firms
By Cristina Gualdani; UCL
   presented by: Cristina Gualdani, UCL
Session 5: Money and the Macroeconomy (1)
June 22, 2016 15:00 to 16:20
U6-33
Session type: contributed
Output Gap, Monetary Policy Trade-offs and Financial Frictions
By Francesco Furlanetto; Norges Bank
Paolo Gelain; Norges Bank
Marzie Taheri Sanjani; International Monetary Fund
   presented by: Francesco Furlanetto, Norges Bank
Decomposing the Effects of Monetary Policy
By Aeimit Lakdawala; Michigan State University
   presented by: Aeimit Lakdawala, Michigan State University
Time-varying volatility, financial intermediation and monetary policy
By Sandra Eickmeier; Deutsche Bundesbank
Norbert Metiu; Deutsche Bundesbank
Esteban Prieto; Deutsche Bundesbank
   presented by: Esteban Prieto, Deutsche Bundesbank
Asking too much from one instrument: the zero persistence of the interest rate on bank lending
By Nektarios Michail; Central Bank of Cyprus
Demetris Koursaros; Cyprus University of Technology
Christos Savva; Cyprus University of Technology
   presented by: Nektarios Michail, Central Bank of Cyprus
Session 6: Uncertainty and the Macroeconomy (1)
June 22, 2016 15:00 to 16:20
U6-40
Session type: contributed
Understanding the Sources of Macroeconomic Uncertainty
By Barbara Rossi; ICREA-Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona GSE and CREI
Tatevik Sekhposyan; Texas A&M University
   presented by: Tatevik Sekhposyan, Texas A&M University
A New Approach to Identifying the Real Effects of Uncertainty Shocks
By Minchul Shin; University of Illinois
Molin Zhong; Federal Reserve Board of Governors
   presented by: Molin Zhong, Federal Reserve Board of Governors
Measuring uncertainty and its impact on the economy
By Andrea Carriero; Queen Mary Univerity of London
Todd Clark; Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Massimiliano Marcellino; Bocconi University
   presented by: Massimiliano Marcellino, Bocconi University
Session 7: Topics in Bayesian Econometrics (1)
June 22, 2016 15:00 to 16:20
U6-30
Session type: contributed
Optimal Retrospective Sampling for a Class of Variable Dimension Models
By Andriy Norets; Brown University
   presented by: Andriy Norets, Brown University
Averaging Point- and Set-Identified Models
By Raffaella Giacomini; University College London
Toru Kitagawa; University College London
Alessio Volpicella; Queen Mary University
   presented by: Toru Kitagawa, University College London
Semiparametric Bayesian Estimation and Comparison of Moment Condition Models
By Siddhartha Chib; Washington University in St. Louis
Minchul Shin; University of Illinois
Anna Simoni; CNRS UMR9194 – CREST
   presented by: Anna Simoni, CNRS UMR9194 – CREST
Large Time Varying Parameter VARs and Macroeconomic Forecasting
[slides]
By Gianni Amisano; Federal Reserve Board
   presented by: Gianni Amisano, Federal Reserve Board
Session 8: Time Series Models (1)
June 22, 2016 15:00 to 16:20
U6-41
Session type: contributed
Monitoring Parameter Constancy with Endogenous Regressors
By Eiji Kurozumi; Hitotsubashi University
   presented by: Eiji Kurozumi, Hitotsubashi University
On the Power of Tests for Regime Switching
By Douglas Steigerwald; University of California, Santa Barbara
   presented by: Douglas Steigerwald, University of California, Santa Barbara
Is Robust Inference Sensible in Time Series Regressions?
By Richard Baillie; Michigan State University
   presented by: Richard Baillie, Michigan State University
Semiparametric Estimation of Multivariate GARCH models
By Claudio Morana; Università di Milano Bicocca
   presented by: Claudio Morana, University Milano Bicocca
Session 9: Topics in Empirical Macroeconomics (1)
June 22, 2016 15:00 to 16:20
U6-39
Session type: contributed
The Real Effects of Disruptions in Global Food Commodity Markets: Evidence for the United States
By Jasmien De Winne; Ghent University
Gert Peersman; Ghent University
   presented by: Jasmien De Winne, Ghent University
Subjective Intertemporal Substitution
By Richard Crump; Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Stefano Eusepi; Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Andrea Tambalotti; Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Giorgio Topa; Federal Reserve Bank of New York
   presented by: Andrea Tambalotti, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Growth, Slowdowns, and Recoveries
By Francesco Bianchi; Cornell University
   presented by: Francesco Bianchi, Duke University/Cornell University
Macroeconomic implications of oil price fluctuations: A regime-switching framework for the euro area
By Federic Holm-Hadulla; European Central Bank
Kirstin Hubrich; Federal Reserve System
   presented by: Kirstin Hubrich, Federal Reserve System
Session 10: Jumps in Asset Prices
June 22, 2016 15:00 to 16:20
U6-34
Session type: contributed
Financial flights, stock market linkages and jump excitation
By Mardi Dungey; University of Tasmania
Deniz Erdemlioglu; IESEG School of Management
Marius Matei; University of Tasmania
Xiye Yang; University of Amsterdam
   presented by: Deniz Erdemlioglu, IESEG School of Management
Asymmetric Jump Beta Estimation with Implications for Portfolio Risk Management
By Vitali Alexeev; University of Tasmania
Giovanni Urga; Cass Business School London
Wenying Yao; Monash University
   presented by: Vitali Alexeev, University of Tasmania
Asset Returns with Self-Exciting Jumps: Option Pricing and Estimation with a Continuum of Moments
By Andrei Lalu; University of Amsterdam
Peter Boswijk; University of Amsterdam
Roger Laeven; University of Amsterdam
   presented by: Peter Boswijk, University of Amsterdam
Testing for cojumps in high-frequency asset prices
By Markus Kösler; University of Cologne
Hans Manner; University of Cologne
   presented by: Markus Kösler, University of Cologne
Session 11: Density Forecasts
June 22, 2016 15:00 to 16:20
U6-42
Session type: contributed
Density Forecasting in Nonlinear Models with Stochastic Volatility
By Peter Exterkate; University of Sydney
   presented by: Peter Exterkate, University of Sydney
Forecast Elicitation with Weighted Scoring Rules
By Justinas Pelenis; Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna
   presented by: Justinas Pelenis, Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna
Quantile aggregation of density forecasts
By Fabio Busetti; Bank of Italy
   presented by: Fabio Busetti, Bank of Italy
Session 12: Immigration, Cultural Persistence, and Assimilation
June 22, 2016 16:50 to 18:10
U6-38
Session Chair: Michael Haliassos, Goethe University Frankfurt
Session type: contributed
Neighborhood Dynamics and the Distribution of Opportunity
By Dionissi Aliprantis; Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Daniel Carroll; Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
   presented by: Dionissi Aliprantis, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Group assimilation of immigrants
By khansa Al-Sabah; city university london
   presented by: khansa Al-Sabah, city university london
Do Immigrants Free Ride More Than Natives
By Una Osili; IUPUI
Jia Xie; Bank of Canada
   presented by: Una Osili, IUPUI
Incompatible European Partners? Cultural Predispositions and Household Financial Behavior
By Michael Haliassos; Goethe University Frankfurt
Thomas Jansson; Sveriges riksbank
Yigitcan Karabulut; Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University
   presented by: Michael Haliassos, Goethe University Frankfurt
Session 13: Health
June 22, 2016 16:50 to 18:10
U6-36
Session type: contributed
Health status and labor market outcome: empirical evidence from Australia
By Kannika Damrongplasit; Chulalongkorn University
Cheng Hsiao; University of Southern California
Xueyan Zhao; Monash University
   presented by: Xueyan Zhao, Monash University
Pappa Ante Portas: The Effect of the Husband’s Retirement on the Wife’s Mental Health
By Marco Bertoni; University of Padova
Giorgio Brunello; University of Padova
   presented by: Marco Bertoni, University of Padova
Retirement and Cognitive Decline: Evidence from Global Aging Data
By Masato Oikawa; University of Tokyo
Yoshinori Nishimura; The University of Tokyo
   presented by: Yoshinori Nishimura, The University of Tokyo
Health status over the life cycle
By Rob Alessie; University of Groningen
   presented by: Rob Alessie, University of Groningen
Session 14: Confidence, Optimism, and Sunspots
June 22, 2016 16:50 to 18:10
U6-34
Session type: contributed
Rational Sunspots
By Guido Ascari; University of Oxford
Paolo Bonomolo; Sveriges Riksbank
Hedibert Lopes; University of Chicago
   presented by: Paolo Bonomolo, Sveriges Riksbank
Growth expectations, undue optimism, and short-run fluctuations
By Zeno Enders; University of Heidelberg
Michael Kleemann; Deutsche Bundesbank
Gernot Mueller; University of Tuebingen
   presented by: Zeno Enders, University of Heidelberg
Indeterminacy, misspecification and forecastability: Good luck in bad policy?
By Luca Fanelli; University of Bologna
Marco Sorge; University of Goettingen and CSEF
   presented by: Marco Sorge, University of Goettingen and CSEF
Does the Confidence Fairy Exist? Evidence from a New Narrative Dataset on Announcements of Fiscal Austerity Measures
By Oana Furtuna; University of Amsterdam
   presented by: Oana Furtuna, University of Amsterdam
Session 15: Term Structure of Interest Rates (1)
June 22, 2016 16:50 to 18:10
U6-30
Session type: contributed
An International Dynamic Term Structure Model with Economic Restrictions and Unspanned Risks
By Gregory Bauer; Bank of Canada
Antonio Diez de los Rios; Bank of Canada
   presented by: Gregory Bauer, Bank of Canada
Score-Driven Nelson Siegel: Hedging Long-Term Liabilities (CANCELLED)
By Rogier Quaedvlieg; Maastricht University
Peter Schotman; Maastricht University
   presented by: Rogier Quaedvlieg, Maastricht University
Global Factors in the Term Structure of Interest Rates
By Antonio Moreno; University of Navarra
   presented by: Antonio Moreno, University of Navarra
Core and Crust: Consumer Prices and the Term Structure of Interest Rates
By Andrea Ajello; Federal Reserve Board
Luca Benzoni; Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Olena Chyruk; Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
   presented by: Olena Chyruk, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Session 16: Big Data and Factor Models
June 22, 2016 16:50 to 18:10
U6-33
Session type: contributed
Quantile Factor Models
By Liang Chen; University of Oxford
Juan Jose Dolado; European University Institute
Jesus Gonzalo; Universidad Carlos III de Madrid
   presented by: Jesus Gonzalo, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid
Big Data Analytics: A New Perspective
By Alexander Chudik; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
George Kapetanios; Queen Mary, University of London
M. Hashem Pesaran; University of Southern California, and T
   presented by: M. Hashem Pesaran, University of Southern California, and T
Bootstrapping factor models with cross sectional dependence
By Silvia Goncalves; University of Western Ontario
Benoit Perron; Universite de Montreal
   presented by: Silvia Goncalves, University of Western Ontario
Non-Stationary Dynamic Factor Models for Large Datasets
By Matteo Barigozzi; LSE
Marco Lippi; Einaudi Institute for Economics and Fina
Matteo Luciani; Federal Reserve Board
   presented by: Matteo Luciani, Federal Reserve Board
Session 17: Breaks and Structural Change
June 22, 2016 16:50 to 18:10
U6-39
Session type: contributed
Empirical Likelihood Based Inference for Fixed Effects Varying Coefficient Panel Data Models
By Luis Antonio Arteaga-Molina; Universidad de Cantabria
Juan Rodriguez-Poo; Universidad de Cantabria
   presented by: Juan Rodriguez-Poo, Universidad de Cantabria
Break Point Estimation in Fixed Effects Panel Data
By Otilia Boldea; Tilburg University
Zhuojiong Gan; SWUFE
Bettina Drepper; Tilburg University
   presented by: Bettina Drepper, Tilburg University
UNIFIED INFERENCE ON CHANGE–POINT IN SEGMENTED REGRESSION MODELS
By Jungyoon Lee; Royal Holloway, University of London
Javier Hidalgo; London School of Economics
Myung Hwan Seo; London School of Economics
   presented by: Jungyoon Lee, Royal Holloway, University of London
Session 18: Bayes and Shrinkage Methods for VARs
June 22, 2016 16:50 to 18:10
U6-41
Session type: contributed
Stein Combination Shrinkage for Vector Autoregressions
By Bruce Hansen; University of Wisconsin
   presented by: Bruce Hansen, University of Wisconsin
Large BVARs with Stochastic Volatility
By Marco Del Negro; Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Domenico Giannone; Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Daniel Greenwald; New York University
   presented by: Domenico Giannone, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Session 19: Policy evaluation
June 22, 2016 16:50 to 18:10
U6-37
Session type: contributed
How Effective Are Non-monetary Instruments for Safe Driving? Panel Data Evidence on the Effect of the Demerit Point System in Denmark
By Kibrom Abay; University of Copenhagen
   presented by: Kibrom Abay, University of Copenhagen
Fueling Conflict? (De)Escalation and Bilateral Aid
By Richard Bluhm; University of Hannover
Sarah Langlotz; University of Heidelberg
Martin Gassebner; University of Hannover
Paul Schaudt; Leibniz University of Hannover
   presented by: Richard Bluhm, University of Hannover
Precommitments for Financial Self-Control? Micro Evidence from the 2003 Korean Credit Crisis
By Sung-Jin Cho; Seoul National University
John Rust; Georgetown University
   presented by: Sung-Jin Cho, Seoul National University
Using a Temporary Indirect Tax Cut as a Fiscal Stimulus: Evidence from the UK
By Thomas Crossley; essex university
Hamish Low; University of Cambridge
Cath Sleeman
   presented by: Thomas Crossley, essex university
Session 20: Housing, Consumption & Prices
June 22, 2016 16:50 to 18:10
U6-42
Session type: contributed
Housing, debt, and the marginal propensity to consume
[slides]
By Gisle Natvik; BI Norwegian Business School
   presented by: Gisle Natvik, BI Norwegian Business School
Cross-Country Differences in Homeownership Rates: A Cultural Phenomenon?
By Stefanie Huber; Universitat Pompeu Fabra / Barcelona GSE
Tobias Schmidt; Deutsche Bundesbank
   presented by: Stefanie Huber, Universitat Pompeu Fabra / Barcelona GSE / European Central Bank (DG-Research)
How large are leverage effects?: investigating the link between consumption and leverage using two samples
By Peter Levell; Institute for Fiscal Studies
   presented by: Peter Levell, Institute for Fiscal Studies
Price Heterogeneity and Consumption Inequality
By Luigi Pisano; Northwestern University
Andrea Stella; Federal Reserve Board
   presented by: Andrea Stella, Federal Reserve Board
Session 21: Cognition
June 22, 2016 16:50 to 18:10
U6-35
Session type: contributed
Diverse Expertise, Peer Effects and Research Productivity: Does diversity in idea space matter?
By Wei Si; Stockholm University
Qi Wang; KTH-Royal Institute of Technology
   presented by: Wei Si, Stockholm University
Knowing who you are: The effect of feedback on short and long term outcomes
By Rigissa Megalokonomou; University of Warwick
Sofoklis Goulas; University of North Carolina,Chapel Hill
   presented by: Rigissa Megalokonomou, University of Warwick
Making it right? Social norms, hand writing and cognitive skills
By Raphael Guber; Munich Center for the Economics of Aging
   presented by: Raphael Guber, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging
Linear Decompositions of Cognitive Achievement Gaps: A Cautionary Note and an Illustration Using Peruvian Data
By Juan F. Castro; Universidad del Pacifico
   presented by: Juan F. Castro, Universidad del Pacifico
Session 22: Panel Data Estimation
June 22, 2016 16:50 to 18:10
U6-40
Session type: contributed
Nuclear Norm Penalized Estimation of Interactive Fixed Effect Models
By Hyungsik Roger Moon; University of Southern California
Martin Weidner; University College London
   presented by: Hyungsik Roger Moon, University of Southern California
A Simple Estimator for Short Panels with Common Factors
By Arturas Juodis
Vasilis Sarafidis; Monash University
   presented by: Vasilis Sarafidis, Monash University
Focused Information Criterion and Model Averaging for Large Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure
By Shou-Yung Yin; Academia Sinica
Chu-An Liu; Academia Sinica
Chang-Ching Lin; National Cheng Kung University
   presented by: Shou-Yung Yin, Academia Sinica
A Bias-Corrected Method of Moments Approach for Estimation of Dynamic Panels
By Alexander Chudik; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
M. Hashem Pesaran; University of Southern California, and T
   presented by: Alexander Chudik, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Session 23: Topics in Empirical Macroeconomics (2)
June 22, 2016 16:50 to 18:10
U6-32
Session type: contributed
Fiscal targets. A guide to forecasters?
By Joan Paredes; European Central Bank
Javier Pérez; Banco de España
Gabriel Perez-Quiros; Banco de España
   presented by: Joan Paredes, European Central Bank
Dynamic Asymmetries in House Price Cycles: A Generalized Smooth Transition Model
[slides]
By Alessandra Canepa; Brunel University
   presented by: Alessandra Canepa, Brunel University
On Identification Issues in Business Cycle Accounting Models
By Pedro Brinca; NovaSBE
Nikolay Iskrev; Bank of Portugal
Francesca Loria; European University Institute
   presented by: Francesca Loria, European University Institute
Finance and Synchronization
By Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi; Bank of England
Jean Imbs; Paris School of Economics
Jumana Saleheen; Bank of England
   presented by: Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi, Bank of England
Session 24: Treatment effects
June 23, 2016 10:30 to 11:50
U6-37
Session type: contributed
Program Evaluation with Right-Censored Data
By Pedro Sant’Anna; Vanderbilt University
   presented by: Pedro H. C. Sant’Anna, Vanderbilt University
Identification issues in the Public/Private wage gap with an application to Italy
By Domenico Depalo; Banca d’Italia
   presented by: Domenico Depalo, Banca d’Italia
Identification of the Average Treatment Effect when SUTVA is violated
By Lukas Laffers; Matej Bel University
Giovanni Mellace; University of Southern Denmark
   presented by: Lukas Laffers, Matej Bel University
Equality-Minded Treatment Choice
By Toru Kitagawa; University College London
Aleksey Tetenov; University of Bristol
   presented by: Aleksey Tetenov, University of Bristol
Session 25: Empirical IO
June 23, 2016 10:30 to 11:50
U6-36
Session type: contributed
Identifying Structural Errors of Demand in a Large Market
By Zhentong Lu; SUFE
   presented by: Zhentong Lu, SUFE
U.S. Savings Banks’ Demutualization and Depositor Welfare
By Mattia Girotti; Banque de France
Richard Meade; AUT University
   presented by: Mattia Girotti, Banque de France
Estimating Store Choices with Endogenous Shopping Bundles and Price Uncertainty
By Hyunchul Kim; Sungkyunkwan University
Kyoo il Kim; Michigan State University
   presented by: Kyoo il Kim, Michigan State University
Random Coefficient Demand Estimation by Optimal Instrument-Based Continuously Updated GMM
By Zsolt Sandor; Sapientia University Miercurea Ciuc
   presented by: Zsolt Sandor, Sapientia University Miercurea Ciuc
Session 26: Nowcasting
June 23, 2016 10:30 to 11:50
U6-33
Session type: contributed
Now‐casting the Italian budget deficit: a mixed frequency BVAR approach
By Jacopo Cimadomo
Domenico Giannone; New York FED
Michele Lenza; European Central Bank
   presented by: Jacopo Cimadomo, European Central Bank
Forecasting Euro Area Recession in Real-Time
By Inske Pirschel; Swiss National Bank
    presented by: Inske Pirschel, Swiss National Bank
Nowcasting Nominal GDP with the Credit-Card Augmented Divisia Monetary Aggregates
By William Barnett; University of Kansas and Center for Financial Stability
Marcelle Chauvet; University of California Riverside
Danilo Leiva-Leon; Central Bank of Chile
Liting Su; University of Kansas
   presented by: Marcelle Chauvet, University of California Riverside
Session 27: Uncertainty and the Macroeconomy (2)
June 23, 2016 10:30 to 11:50
U6-42
Session type: contributed
Identifying Uncertainty Shocks Using the Price of Gold
By Maximilian Podstawski; DIW Berlin
Michele Piffer; DIW Berlin
   presented by: Maximilian Podstawski, DIW Berlin
The State Level Impact of Uncertainty Shocks
By Haroon Mumtaz; Queen Mary
Laura Sunder-Plassmann; University of Copenhagen
Angeliki Theophilopoulou; University of Westminster
   presented by: Angeliki Theophilopoulou; University of Westminster
MEASURING GLOBAL AND COUNTRY-SPECIFIC UNCERTAINTY
By Ezgi O. Ozturk; International Monetary Fund
Xuguang Sheng; American University
   presented by: Xuguang Sheng, American University
Estimating Macroeconomic Uncertainty Using Information Measures from SPF Density Forecasts
By Kajal Lahiri; State University New York Albany
Wuwei Wang; University at Albany, SUNY
   presented by: Wuwei Wang, University at Albany, SUNY
Session 28: Structural VARs (1)
June 23, 2016 10:30 to 11:50
U6-32
Session type: contributed
A Reliable and Testable Alternative to Long-run Restrictions in Structural VAR models
[slides]
By Florian Pelgrin; EDHEC Business School
   presented by: Florian Pelgrin, EDHEC Business School
Are Small-Scale SVARs Useful for Business Cycle Analysis? Revisiting Non-Fundamentalness
By Mehdi Hamidi Sahneh; Carlos III University
Fabio Canova; BI Norwegian business school
   presented by: Mehdi Hamidi Sahneh, Carlos III University
Identifying Structural VARs with a Proxy Variable and a Test for a Weak Proxy
By Kurt Lunsford; Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
   presented by: Kurt Lunsford, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
VAR Information and the Empirical Validation of DSGE Models
By Mario Forni; Università di Modena e Reggio Emilia
Luca Gambetti; Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona
Luca Sala; Universita’ Bocconi
   presented by: Luca Sala, Universita’ Bocconi
Session 29: Earnings
June 23, 2016 10:30 to 11:50
U6-40
Session type: contributed
A Qualitative Approach to the Estimation of Returns to Schooling in France
By Christian Belzil; Ecole Polytechnique
François Poinas; Toulouse School of Economics
   presented by: François Poinas, Toulouse School of Economics
Heterogeneous Exposure to Labor Earnings Risk
By Pierre Pora; Insee
Lionel Wilner; INSEE-CREST
   presented by: Pierre Pora, Insee
Was Sarbanes-Oxley Costly? Evidence from Optimal Contracting on CEO Compensation
By George-Levi Gayle; Washington Unversity in St. Louis
Chen Li; Baruch College, The City University of New York
Robert Miller; Carnegie Mellon University
   presented by: George-Levi Gayle, Washington Unversity in St. Louis
Worker Quality, Wage and the Education Premium in the United States, 1980-2005
By Zhiqi Zhao
   presented by: Zhiqi Zhao,
Session 30: Topics in Monetary Policy (1)
June 23, 2016 10:30 to 11:50
U6-41
Session type: contributed
A Lesson from the Great Depression that the Fed Might have Learned: A Comparison of the 1932 Open Market Purchases with Quantitative Easing
By Michael Bordo; Rutgers University
Arunima Sinha; Fordham University
   presented by: Arunima Sinha, Fordham University
National natural rates of interest and the single monetary policy in the Euro Area
By Sebastien Fries; CREST
Jean-Stéphane Mésonnier; Banque de France
Sarah Mouabbi; Banque de France
Jean-Paul RENNE; HEC Lausanne
   presented by: Jean-Stéphane Mésonnier, Banque de France
Asset Purchase Programmes and Financial Markets: Lessons from the Euro Area
By Carlo Altavilla; European Central Bank
Giacomo Carboni; European Central Bank
Roberto Motto; European Central Bank
   presented by: Carlo Altavilla, European Central Bank
Unconventional Monetary Policy, Fiscal Side Effects, and Euro Area (Im)balances
By Michael Hachula; DIW Berlin
Michele Piffer; DIW Berlin
Malte Rieth; DIW Berlin
   presented by: Michael Hachula, DIW Berlin
Session 31: Housing
June 23, 2016 10:30 to 11:50
U6-35
Session type: contributed
The impact of industrial risk regulation on local housing markets: Evidence from a French policy change
By Marianne Bléhaut; Université Paris Sud
Amélie Mauroux; PSL – Université-Paris Dauphine
   presented by: Marianne Bléhaut, Université Paris Sud
Bank-specific Shocks, House Price Growth and Macroeconomic Performance in the U.S.
By Thomas Krause; Halle Institute for Economic Research
Franziska Bremus; German Institute for Economic Research
Felix Noth; Halle Institute for Economic Research
   presented by: Thomas Krause, Halle Institute for Economic Research
The Consequences of Interest Only Loans for the Housing Boom and Bust
By Claes Backman; Copenhagen Business School
   presented by: Claes Backman, Copenhagen Business School
Residential Land Supply in 27 EU Countries: Pigovian Controls or Nimbyism?
By Lasse Simonsen; Birkbeck College
Stephen Wright; Birkbeck College, University of London
   presented by: Lasse Simonsen, Birkbeck College
Session 32: Measurement errors
June 23, 2016 10:30 to 11:50
U6-38
Session type: contributed
What Leads to Errors in Surveys? Evidence from Multiple Government Programs
By Nikolas Mittag; CERGE-EI, Charles University
   presented by: Nikolas Mittag, CERGE-EI, Charles University
Assessing Measurement Errors in the R&D Innovation Productivity Relationship
By Jacques Mairesse; ENSAE and Maastricht University
   presented by: Jacques Mairesse, ENSAE and Maastricht University
The Competition Effect in a Public Procurement Model: An error-in-variables approach
By David Sundström; Umeå University
   presented by: David Sundström, Umeå University
Identification of structural models in the presence of measurement error due to rounding in survey responses
By Stefan Hoderlein; Boston College
Bettina Siflinger; University of Mannheim
Joachim Winter; University of Munich
   presented by: Joachim Winter, University of Munich
Session 33: Macroeconomics and Finance
June 23, 2016 10:30 to 11:50
U6-39
Session type: contributed
Business and Financial Cycles: An Unobserved Components Models Perspective
By Gerhard Rünstler; European Central Bank
   presented by: Gerhard Rünstler, European Central Bank
Competition Effects of Financial Shocks on Business Cycles
By Boromeus Wanengkirtyo; University of Warwick
   presented by: Boromeus Wanengkirtyo, University of Warwick
Consumption-Wealth Ratio and Expected Stock Returns: Evidence from Panel Data on G7 Countries
By Joao Issler; Getulio Vargas Foundation
Andressa Castro; Banco Itaú Unibanco
   presented by: Joao Issler, Getulio Vargas Foundation
Economic Volatility and Financial Markets: The Case of Mortgage-Backed Securities
By Gaetano Antinolfi; Washington University in Saint Louis
Celso Brunetti; Federal Reserve Board
   presented by: Celso Brunetti, Federal Reserve Board
Session 34: International Trade Dynamics
June 23, 2016 10:30 to 11:50
U6-34
Session type: contributed
External shocks, trade margins and macroeconomic dynamics
By Lilia Cavallari; University of Rome III
Stefano d’Addona; University of Rome 3
   presented by: Stefano d’Addona, University of Rome 3
Trade and Labor Market Dynamics
By Lorenzo Caliendo; Yale University
Maximiliano Dvorkin; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Fernando Parro; Federal Reserve Board
   presented by: Maximiliano Dvorkin, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Barriers to price convergence
By Marina Glushenkova; University of Cyprus
Andros Kourtellos; University of Cyprus
Marios Zachariadis; University of Cyprus
   presented by: Marios Zachariadis, University of Cyprus
Business Cycles in Commodity Economies
By Drago Bergholt; Norges Bank
Vegard Larsen; BI Norwegian Business School
   presented by: Drago Bergholt, Norges Bank
Session 35: Term Structure of Interest Rates 2
June 23, 2016 10:30 to 11:50
U6-30
Session type: contributed
News Shocks and the Slope of the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Comment
[slides]
By Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia; The University of Warwick
   presented by: Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia, The University of Warwick
The yield curve in normal times and at the lower bound
By Peter Hoerdahl; Bank for International Settlements
Oreste Tristani; ECB
   presented by: Oreste Tristani, ECB
Learning about Term Structure Predictability under Uncertainty (CANCELLED)
By Shuo Cao; University of Glasgow
   presented by: Shuo Cao, University of Glasgow
Risk Aversion, Macro Factors and non-fundamental Components in Euro Area Yield Spreads: A Macro-Financial Analysis
By Fabian Herrmann; TU Dortmund University
   presented by: Fabian Herrmann, TU Dortmund University
Session 36: Education
June 23, 2016 14:15 to 15:35
U6-38
Session type: contributed
Selective Admission Tests and Freshmen’s Academic Outcomes
By Koray Aktas; Universita Cattolica del Sacro Cuore
   presented by: Koray Aktas, Universita Cattolica del Sacro Cuore
Retaking in High Stakes Exams: Is Less More?
By Veronica Frisancho; Inter-American Development Bank (IDB)
Kala Krishna; Penn State University
Sergey Lychagin; Central European University
   presented by: Sergey Lychagin, Central European University
The Effect of the Increasing Demand for Elite Schools on Stratification
By Ricardo Estrada; European University Institute
   presented by: Ricardo Estrada, European University Institute
Counting Rotten Apples: Student Achievement and Score Manipulation in Italian Elementary Schools
By Erich Battistin; Queen Mary University of London
Michele De Nadai; University of New South Wales
daniela vuri; University of Rome Tor Vergata
   presented by: Michele De Nadai, University of New South Wales
Session 37: Advances in Econometrics
June 23, 2016 14:15 to 15:35
U6-41
Session type: contributed
Non-Geometric Discrete Kernel Functions for Applied Density and Regression Estimation
By Chi-Yang Chu; University of Alabama
Daniel Henderson; University of Alabama
Christopher Parmeter; University of Miami
   presented by: Chi-Yang Chu, University of Alabama
Testing Based Forward Model Selection
By Damian Kozbur; ETH Zurich
   presented by: Damian Kozbur, ETH Zurich
Consistent Estimation of Linear Regression Models Using Matched Data
By Masayuki Hirukawa; Setsunan University
Artem Prokhorov; University of Sydney
   presented by: Artem Prokhorov, University of Sydney
Bootstrap Quasi-Likelihood Ratio Tests for Nested Models
By Patrice Bertail; Université Paris 10 and CREST
Pascal Lavergne; Toulouse School of Economics
   presented by: Pascal Lavergne, Toulouse School of Economics
Session 38: Macroeconomic Forecasting
June 23, 2016 14:15 to 15:35
U6-33
Session type: contributed
A comprehensive evaluation of macroeconomic forecasting methods
By Andrea Carriero; Queen Mary Univerity of London
Ana Beatriz Galvao; University of Warwick
George Kapetanios; Queen Mary, University of London
   presented by: Ana Beatriz Galvao, University of Warwick
Asymmetry and Federal Reserve Forecasts
By julieta caunedo; Cornell University
Riccardo DiCecio; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Ivana Komunjer; University of California San Diego
Michael Owyang; Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis
   presented by: Riccardo DiCecio, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Rationality, asymmetry and predictability of GDP revisions. The case of France
By Matteo Mogliani; Banque de France
   presented by: Matteo Mogliani, Banque de France
Bayesian Compressed Vector Autoregressions
By Gary Koop; University of Strathclyde
Dimitris Korobilis; University of Glasgow
Davide Pettenuzzo; Brandeis Univeristy
   presented by: Davide Pettenuzzo, Brandeis Univeristy
Session 39: Topics in Empirical Finance (1)
June 23, 2016 14:15 to 15:35
U6-35
Session type: contributed
The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns in Brazil
By Ricardo Brito; INSPER
Gyorgy Varga; FCE Consulting
   presented by: Gyorgy Varga, FCE Consulting
The Brazilian Foreign Exchange Market through the Microstructure Perspective
By Pedro Valls Pereira; Sao Paulo School of Economics – FGV
   presented by: Pedro Valls Pereira, Sao Paulo School of Economics – FGV
Do Catastrophe bond mutual funds constitute zero-beta investments?: identification-robust evidence
By Marie-Claude Beaulieu; Université Laval
Lynda Khalaf; Carleton University
Olena Melin; University of Ottawa
   presented by: Olena Melin, University of Ottawa
An Anatomy of Industry Merger Waves
By Daniele Bianchi; University of Warwick
Carlo Chiarella; Colegio Universitario de Estudios Financieros
   presented by: Daniele Bianchi, University of Warwick
Session 40: Price Inflation (1)
June 23, 2016 14:15 to 15:35
U6-39
Session type: contributed
The calm policymaker: an information-based theory of the price level
By John Barrdear; Bank of England
   presented by: John Barrdear, Bank of England
Can financial shocks explain the “missing disinflation” during the Great Recession?
By Angela Abbate; Deutsche Bundesbank
Sandra Eickmeier; Deutsche Bundesbank
Esteban Prieto; Deutsche Bundesbank
   presented by: Angela Abbate, Deutsche Bundesbank
Drivers of Low Inflation in US
By Marzie Taheri Sanjani; International Monetary Fund
Stefan Laséen; IMF
   presented by: Marzie Taheri Sanjani, International Monetary Fund
`Missing deflation’ and `missing inflation’ since the Great Recession: a VAR perspective
By Elena Bobeica; European Central Bank
Marek Jarocinski; European Central Bank
   presented by: Marek Jarocinski, European Central Bank
Session 41: Topics in Forecasting (1)
June 23, 2016 14:15 to 15:35
U6-34
Session type: contributed
Targeted Filtration with a Difference for Inference and Long-Horizon Forecasts: Application to the Real Price of Crude Oil
By Stephen Snudden; Queen’s University
   presented by: Stephen Snudden, Queen’s University
Robust Evaluation of Multivariate Density Forecasts
By Jonas Dovern; Heidelberg University
Hans Manner; University of Cologne
   presented by: Hans Manner, University of Cologne
Comparing Predictive Accuracy under Long Memory – With an Application to Volatility Forecasting –
By Robinson Kruse; CREATES, Aarhus University
Christian Leschinski; Leibniz Universität Hannover
Michael Will; Leibniz Universität Hannover
   presented by: Robinson Kruse, CREATES, Aarhus University
Testing for State-Dependent Predictive Ability
By Sebastian Fossati; University of Alberta
   presented by: Sebastian Fossati, University of Alberta
Session 42: DSGE Models (1)
June 23, 2016 14:15 to 15:35
U6-40
Session type: contributed
Estimating a DSGE model with Limited Asset Market Participation for the Euro Area
By Alice Albonico; Università degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca
Alessia Paccagnini; University College Dublin
Patrizio Tirelli; University of Milano-Bicocca
   presented by: Alessia Paccagnini, University College Dublin
Endogenous Monetary-Fiscal Regime Change in the United States
By Yoosoon Chang; Indiana University
Boreum Kwak; Indiana University
Eric Leeper; Indiana University
   presented by: Yoosoon Chang, Indiana University
Hours and Employment Over the Business Cycle
By Matteo Cacciatore; HEC Montreal
Giuseppe Fiori; North Carolina State University
Nora Traum; North Carolina State University
   presented by: Nora Traum, North Carolina State University
PIIGS in the Euro Area. An Empirical DSGE Model.
[slides]
By Alice Albonico; Università degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca
Patrizio Tirelli; University of Milano-Bicocca
   presented by: Patrizio Tirelli, University of Milano-Bicocca
Session 43: Monetary Policy: Regimes and Forward Guidance
June 23, 2016 14:15 to 15:35
U6-32
Session type: contributed
Optimal Monetary Policy Regime Switches
By Andrew Foerster; Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
   presented by: Andrew Foerster, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
Signaling Effects of Monetary Policy
By Leonardo Melosi; Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
   presented by: Leonardo Melosi, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
The Forward Guidance Puzzle
By Marco Del Negro; Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Marc Giannoni; Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Christina Patterson; Federal Reserve Bank of New York
   presented by: Marco Del Negro, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Forward Guidance and Macroeconomic Outcomes Since the Financial Crisis
By Jonas Fisher; Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Alejandro Justiniano; Federal Reerve Chicago
Leonardo Melosi; Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
   presented by: Alejandro Justiniano, Federal Reerve Chicago
Session 44: Demand for Health Care
June 23, 2016 14:15 to 15:35
U6-37
Session type: contributed
Bounding the Effect of Private Health Insurance on Dental Care Utilisation
By Chuhui Li; Monash University
Donald Poskitt; Monash University
Xueyan Zhao; Monash University
   presented by: Chuhui Li, Monash University
Disentangling adverse selection, moral hazard and supply induced demand: An empirical analysis for the demand for health care services
By Vincenzo Atella; University of Rome Tor Vergata
Alberto Holly; University of Lausanne
Alessandro Mistretta; Bank of Italy
   presented by: Alessandro Mistretta; Bank of Italy
Demand of Long-Term Care and benefit eligibility across European countries
By Ludovico Carrino; University of Venice Ca’ Foscari
   presented by: Ludovico Carrino, University of Venice Ca’ Foscari
Health Care Regionalization and Birth Outcomes: Evidence from Maternity Clinic Closures
By Daniel Avdic; CINCH and University of Duisburg-Essen
Petter Lundborg; Lund University
Johan Vikström; IFAU-Uppsala
   presented by: Daniel Avdic, CINCH and University of Duisburg-Essen
Session 45: Labor market transitions
June 23, 2016 14:15 to 15:35
U6-36
Session type: contributed
Activating the Unemployed – Efficient Policy Tool or Pathway into Low-Wage Trap?
By Lukas Fervers; IAW
   presented by: Lukas Fervers, Institute for Applied Economic Research (IAW), Tübingen
Randomizing information on a targeted wage support program for older workers: A field experiment
By Pia Homrighausen; Institute for Employment Research (IAB), University of Mannheim
Gerard van den Berg; University of Mannheim
Gesine Stephan; Institute for Employment Research
   presented by: Pia Homrighausen, Institute for Employment Research (IAB), University of Mannheim
Employment Transitions and Human Capital Loss: The Effect of Occupational Mobility on Qualification Mismatch
By Inna Petrunyk; Leuphana University
   presented by: Inna Petrunyk, Leuphana University
Mining closure, gender and employment reallocations: the case of UK coal mines
By Gerhard Toews; University of Oxford
   presented by: Gerhard Toews, University of Oxford
Session 46: Economics of the Household
June 23, 2016 14:15 to 15:35
U6-30
Session type: contributed
Household Risksharing Channels
By Pierfederico Asdrubali; European Commission
Simone Tedeschi; University of Roma Tre
Luigi Ventura; Universita’ di Roma
   presented by: Simone Tedeschi, University of Roma Tre
Testing Efficiency of Family Decisions; the Case of Adult Children’s Caring Decisions
By marike knoef; Leiden University, Netspar
Peter Kooreman; Tilburg University
   presented by: Marike Knoef, Leiden University, Netspar
An empirical Bayes method to estimate resource shares of household members
By Denni Tommasi; Université Libre de Bruxelles
Alexander Wolf; Université Libre de Bruxelles
   presented by: Alexander Wolf, Université Libre de Bruxelles
Home production as a substitute to market consumption? Estimating the elasticity using houseprice shocks from the Great Recession
By Jim Been; Leiden University & Netspar
MIchael D. Hurd; RAND
Susann Rohwedder; RAND
   presented by: Jim Been, Leiden University & Netspar
Session 47: Time Series Models (2)
June 23, 2016 14:15 to 15:35
U6-42
Session type: contributed
Consistent Monitoring of Cointegrating Relationships: The US Housing Market and the Subprime Crisis
By Martin Wagner; Technical University Dortmund
   presented by: Martin Wagner, Technical University Dortmund
Adaptive state space models with applications to the business cycle and financial stress
By Davide Delle Monache; Bank of Italy
Ivan Petrella; Birkbeck
Fabrizio Venditti; Banca d’Italia
   presented by: Davide Delle Monache, Bank of Italy
Unstable Diffusion Indexes
By Daniele Massacci; Einaudi Institute for Economics and Fina
   presented by: Daniele Massacci, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Fina
Forecasting with Sufficient Dimension Reductions
By alessandro barbarino; Federal Reserve Board
   presented by: alessandro barbarino, Federal Reserve Board
Session 48: Factor Models for Structural Analysis
June 23, 2016 16:10 to 17:30
U6-30
Session type: contributed
Dominant Sectors in the US: A Factor Model Analysis of Sectoral Industrial Production
[slides]
By Soroosh Soofi Siavash; Goethe University Frankfurt
   presented by: Soroosh Soofi Siavash, Goethe University Frankfurt
Dynamic Effects of Credit Shocks in a Data-Rich Environment
By Jean Boivin; Bank of Canada
Marc Giannoni; Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Dalibor Stevanovic; Université du Québec à Montréal
   presented by: Dalibor Stevanovic, Université du Québec à Montréal
Is Industrial Production Still the Dominant Factor for the US Economy?
By Elena Andreou; University of Cyprus
Patrick Gagliardini; Università della Svizzera italiana
Eric Ghysels; UNC
Mirco Rubin; Università della Svizzera Italiana
   presented by: Mirco Rubin, Università della Svizzera Italiana
Structural Factor Analysis of Interest Rate Pass Through in Four Large Euro Area Economies
By Anindya Banerjee; University of Birmingham
Victor Bystrov; University of Lodz
Paul Mizen; University of Nottingham
   presented by: Anindya Banerjee, University of Birmingham
Session 49: Exchange Rates
June 23, 2016 16:10 to 17:30
U6-42
Session type: contributed
Exchange Rates, Interest Rates and the Global Carry Trade
By Martin Evans; Georgetown U
Dagfinn Rime; BI Norwegian Business School
   presented by: Dagfinn Rime, BI Norwegian Business School
Assessing the predictive ability of sovereign default risk on exchange rate returns
By Claudia Foroni; Norges Bank
Francesco Ravazzolo; Free University of Bozen/Bolzano
Barbara Sadaba; Erasmus University – Tinbergen Institute
   presented by: Francesco Ravazzolo, Free University of Bozen/Bolzano
Forecasting Commodity Currencies: The Role of Fundamentals with Short-Lived Predictive Content
By Claudia Foroni; Norges Bank
Francesco Ravazzolo; Free University of Bozen/Bolzano
Pinho Ribeiro; University of Glasgow
   presented by: Claudia Foroni, Norges Bank
Session 50: Time Series Models (3)
June 23, 2016 16:10 to 17:30
U6-32
Session type: contributed
Inference in Proxy SVARs
By Carsten Jentsch; University of Mannheim
Carsten Jentsch; TU Braunschweig
   presented by: Carsten Jentsch, TU Braunschweig
A Specification Test of Dynamic Conditional Distributions
By Victor Troster; Universitat de les Illes Balears (UIB)
   presented by: Victor Troster, Universitat de les Illes Balears (UIB)
Dynamic Adaptive Mixture Models
By Leopoldo Catania; University of Rome ‘Tor Vergata’
   presented by: Leopoldo Catania, University of Rome ‘Tor Vergata’
Do Seasonal Adjustments Induce Noncausal Forecastability? An Application to Inflation Rates
[slides]
By Alain Hecq; Maastricht University
Lenard Lieb; Maastricht University
sean telg; maastricht university
   presented by: Alain Hecq, Maastricht University
Session 51: Forecasting in Finance
June 23, 2016 16:10 to 17:30
U6-40
Session type: contributed
Exponential Smoothing, Long Memory and Volatility Prediction
By Tommaso Proietti; Università degli Studi di Roma
   presented by: Tommaso Proietti, Università degli Studi di Roma
Forecasting Value-at-Risk under Temporal and Portfolio Aggregation
By Erik Kole; Erasmus University Rotterdam
Thijs Markwat
Anne Opschoor; Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
Dick van Dijk; Erasmus University Rotterdam
   presented by: Erik Kole, Erasmus University Rotterdam
Predicting Realized Bond Betas using Macro-Finance Variables
By Nektarios Aslanidis; Universitat Rovira i Virgili
Charlotte Christiansen; CREATES, Aarhus University
Andrea Cipollini; University of Palermo
   presented by: Andrea Cipollini, University of Palermo
Small-sample tests for stock return predictability with possibly non-stationary regressors and GARCH-type effects
By Sermin Gungor; Bank of Canada
Richard Luger; Laval University
   presented by: Sermin Gungor, Bank of Canada
Session 52: Volatility in Asset Prices
June 23, 2016 16:10 to 17:30
U6-38
Session type: contributed
More accurate volatility estimation and forecasts using price durations
By Ingmar Nolte; Lancaster University
Stephen Taylor; Lancaster University
Xiaolu Zhao; Lancaster University
   presented by: Xiaolu Zhao, Lancaster University
High Dimensional Multivariate Realized Volatility
By Tim Bollerslev; Department of Economics and Fuqua School
Nour Meddahi; Toulouse School of Economics
Serge Luther NYAWA WOMO; Toulouse School of Economics
   presented by: Serge Luther NYAWA WOMO, Toulouse School of Economics
A Semiparametric Intraday GARCH Model
By Peter Malec; University of Cambridge
   presented by: Peter Malec, University of Cambridge
A dynamic component model for forecasting high dimensional realized covariance matrices
By Luc Bauwens; Université catholique de Louvain
manuela braione; Université catholique de Louvain
Giuseppe Storti; University of Salerno
   presented by: manuela braione, Université catholique de Louvain
Session 53: Evaluation studies
June 23, 2016 16:10 to 17:30
U6-36
Session type: contributed
Using Entropic Distance Metric to Rank Control Distributions in Evaluation Studies
By Adeola Oyenubi; University of Cape Town
   presented by: Adeola Oyenubi, University of Cape Town
Illuminating the World Cup Effect: Night Lights Evidence from South Africa
By Gregor Pfeifer; U Hohenheim
Fabian Wahl; University of Hohenheim
Martyna Marczak; University of Hohenheim
   presented by: Fabian Wahl, University of Hohenheim
When Can Experimental Evidence Mislead? A Re-Assessment of Canada’s Self Sufficiency Project
By Chris Riddell; Cornell University
   presented by: Chris Riddell, Cornell University
Session 54: Effects of Globalization
June 23, 2016 16:10 to 17:30
U6-37
Session type: contributed
The cost of immigrants’ occupational mismatch in Canada
By Yigit Aydede; Saint Mary’s University
Atul Dar; Sobey School of Business
   presented by: Yigit Aydede, Saint Mary’s University
Education, Health and Fertility of UK Immigrants: The Role of English Language Skills
By Yu Aoki; University of Aberdeen and IZA
   presented by: Yu Aoki, University of Aberdeen and IZA
Selection bias, unobserved heterogeneity and state dependence in empirical remittance modelling: evidence from immigrants to Germany
By Giulia Bettin; Università Politecnica delle Marche
Riccardo Lucchetti; Università Politecnica delle Marche
Claudia Pigini; Università Politecnica delle Marche
   presented by: Claudia Pigini, Università Politecnica delle Marche
Transplanting Corporate Culture across International Borders: FDI and Female Employment in Japan
By Naomi Kodama; Hitotsubashi University
Beata Javorcik; University of Oxford
Yukiko Abe; Hokkaido University
   presented by: Yukiko Abe, Hokkaido University
Session 55: Organization of firms
June 23, 2016 16:10 to 17:30
U6-35
Session type: contributed
Where Women Make the Difference. The Effects of Corporate Board Gender-Quota on Firms’ Performance Across Europe
By Simona Comi; University of Milano Bicocca
mara grasseni; Università di Bergamo
Federica Origo; Università di Bergamo
Laura Pagani; Università Bicocca
   presented by: Laura Pagani, Università Bicocca
Insurance Between Firms: The Role of Internal Labor Markets
By Giacinta Cestone; Cass Business School, City University Lo
Chiara Fumagalli; Bocconi University
Francis Kramarz; CREST
Giovanni Pica; University of Milan
   presented by: Giovanni Pica, University of Milan
Employer Learning, Statistical Discrimination and University Prestige
By Paola Bordon
   presented by: Paola Bordon, University of Chile
Temporary Workers, Educational Mismatch and Firm Productivity
By Agata Maida; U Milan
Cristina Tealdi; IMT Lucca
   presented by: Cristina Tealdi, IMT Lucca
Session 56: Heterogeneity in Panel and Duration Data
June 23, 2016 16:10 to 17:30
U6-33
Session type: contributed
Copula-Based Random Effects Models
By Santiago Pereda-Fernández; Banca d’Italia
   presented by: Santiago Pereda-Fernández, Banca d’Italia
Shedding Light on Inventors’ Returns to Patents
By Sabrina Di Addario; Bank of Italy
   presented by: Sabrina Di Addario, Bank of Italy
EM-REML Dynamic Heterogeneous Panel Data Models.
By Andrea Nocera; Birkbeck, University of London
   presented by: Andrea Nocera, Birkbeck, University of London
A Duration Model with Dynamic Unobserved Heterogeneity
By Irene Botosaru; Simon Fraser University
   presented by: Irene Botosaru, Simon Fraser University
Session 57: Risk Networks
June 23, 2016 16:10 to 17:30
U6-32
Session type: contributed
Measuring Connectedness of Euro Area Sovereign Risk
By Rebekka Gätjen; Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
Melanie Schienle; Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
   presented by: Rebekka Gätjen, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
Spillovers during Eurozone debt crisis: network analyisis with absolute magnitude restrictions
By Srecko Zimic; European Central Bank
   presented by: Srecko Zimic, European Central Bank
How Connected is the Global Sovereign Credit Risk Network?
By Gorkem Bostanci; University of Pennsylvania
Kamil Yilmaz; Koc University
   presented by: Kamil Yilmaz, Koc University
Measuring the frequency dynamics of financial connectedness and systemic risk
By Tomas Krehlik; Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic
Jozef Barunik; Institute of Economic Studies, Charles U
   presented by: Tomas Krehlik, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic
Session 58: Panel Data Topics and Applications
June 23, 2016 16:10 to 17:30
U6-39
Session type: contributed
Estimating country heterogeneity in aggregate capital-labor substitution using panel data: A bayesian fixed effects approach
By Lucciano Villacorta; Centro De Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros
   presented by: Lucciano Villacorta, Central Bank of Chile
Bias corrected CCEP estimation in homogeneous dynamic panels
By Ignace De Vos; Ghent University
Gerdie Everaert; Ghent University
   presented by: Ignace De Vos, Ghent University
A Semiparametric Quantile Panel Data Model with An Application to Estimating the Growth Effect of FDI
[slides]
By Ying Fang; Xiamen University
   presented by: Ying Fang, Xiamen University
On the role of the rank condition in CCE estimation of factor-augmented panel regressions
By Hande Karabiyik; Lund University
Simon Reese; Lund University
Joakim Westerlund; Lund University
   presented by: Simon Reese, Lund University
Session 59: Topics in Development and Macroeconomics
June 23, 2016 16:10 to 17:30
U6-34
Session type: contributed
Financial deepening and income distribution inequality in the euro area
By Donatella Baiardi; Università Milano Bicocca
Claudio Morana; Università di Milano Bicocca
   presented by: Donatella Baiardi, Università Milano Bicocca
Political shocks, share prices and business investment: regression discontinuity evidence from OECD elections
[slides]
By Daniele Girardi; University of Siena
   presented by: Daniele Girardi, University of Siena
Unemployment Flows, Participation and the Natural Rate of Unemployment: Evidence from Turkey
By Gonul Sengul; Central Bank of Turkey
Murat Tasci; Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
   presented by: Gonul Sengul, Central Bank of Turkey
An inflation-predicting measure of the output gap in the euro area
By Marek Jarocinski; European Central Bank
Michele Lenza; European Central Bank
   presented by: Michele Lenza, European Central Bank
Session 60: Long Memory
June 24, 2016 10:30 to 11:50
U6-37
Session type: contributed
Long Memory Through Marginalization of Large Systems and Hidden Cross-Section Dependence
By Guillaume Chevillon; ESSEC Business School
Alain Hecq; Maastricht University
Sebastien Laurent; Aix-Marseille University
   presented by: Guillaume Chevillon, ESSEC Business School
Long Memory, Fractional Integration, and Cross-Sectional Aggregation
By Niels Haldrup; Aarhus University CREATES
JOSE VERA VALDES; AARHUS UNIVERSITY
   presented by: JOSE VERA VALDES, AARHUS UNIVERSITY
Testing for Level Shifts in Fractionally Integrated Processes: a State Space Approach
By Davide Delle Monache; Bank of Italy
Stefano Grassi; University of Kent
Paolo Santucci de Magistris; Aarhus University and CREATES
   presented by: Stefano Grassi, University of Kent
Session 61: Uncertainty and Policy
June 24, 2016 10:30 to 11:50
U6-39
Session type: contributed
Economic Policy Uncertainty Spillovers in Booms and Busts
By Juan Figueres; University of Padua
Efrem Castelnuovo; University of Melbourne
Giovanni Caggiano; University of Padua
   presented by: Juan Figueres, University of Padua
Unsurprising Shocks: Information, Premia, and the Monetary Transmission
By Silvia Miranda-Agrippino; Bank of England
   presented by: Silvia Miranda-Agrippino, Bank of England
Subjective Interest Rate Uncertainty and the Macroeconomy: A cross-country analysis
By Klodiana Istrefi; Banque de France
Sarah Mouabbi; Banque de France
   presented by: Klodiana Istrefi, Banque de France
Session 62: Topics in Forecasting (2)
June 24, 2016 10:30 to 11:50
U6-35
Session type: contributed
A near optimal test for structural breaks when forecasting under squared error loss
By Tom Boot; Erasmus University Rotterdam
Andreas Pick; Ersamus School of Economics
   presented by: Andreas Pick, Ersamus School of Economics
Using the Area Under an Estimated ROC Curve to Test the Adequacy of Binary Predictors
By Robert Lieli; Central European University
Yu-Chin Hsu; Academia Sinica
   presented by: Robert Lieli, Central European University
Approximating Fixed-Horizon Forecasts Using Fixed-Event Forecasts
By Malte Knüppel; Deutsche Bundesbank
Andreea Liliana Vladu; Bundesbank
   presented by: Malte Knüppel, Deutsche Bundesbank
Forecaster Inattention: Measurement, Determinants, and Policy Implications
By Zidong An; American University
Xuguang Sheng; American University
Jonathan Wallen; Stanford University
   presented by: Jonathan Wallen, Stanford University
Session 63: Topics in Bayesian Econometrics (2)
June 24, 2016 10:30 to 11:50
U6-40
Session type: contributed
On Consistency of Approximate Bayesian Computation
[slides]
By Gael Martin; Monash University
   presented by: Gael Martin, Monash University
The ABC of Simulation Estimation with Auxiliary Statistics
By Jean-Jacques Forneron; Columbia University
Serena Ng; Columbia University
   presented by: Jean-Jacques Forneron, Columbia University
Ambiguous identification
By Raffaella Giacomini; University College London
   presented by: Raffaella Giacomini, University College London
Session 64: Business Cycle Dynamics and Volatility
June 24, 2016 10:30 to 11:50
U6-42
Session type: contributed
The Great Moderation in the long run. Is it that Great?
By Lola Gadea; University of Zaragoza
Ana Gómez-Loscos; Banco de España
Gabriel Perez-Quiros; Banco de España
   presented by: Ana Gómez-Loscos, Banco de España
Dynamics of sectoral business cycle comovement
By Anna Pauliina Sandqvist; KOF Swiss Economic Institute ETH Zürich
   presented by: Anna Pauliina Sandqvist, KOF Swiss Economic Institute ETH Zürich
Revisiting the transitional dynamics of business-cycle phases with mixed frequency data
By Marie Bessec; PSL*, Université Paris Dauphine
   presented by: Marie Bessec, Université Paris Dauphine, PSL Research University, LEDa
Session 65: Employment and Unemployment in the Macroeconomy
June 24, 2016 10:30 to 11:50
U6-34
Session type: contributed
The Cyclical Component of Labor Market Polarization and Jobless Recoveries in the US
By Paul Gaggl; UNC Charlotte
Sylvia Kaufmann; Study Center Gerzensee
   presented by: Sylvia Kaufmann, Study Center Gerzensee
On the Demographic Adjustment of Unemployment
By Geert Mesters; Universitat Pompeu Fabra
Regis Barnichon; CREI
   presented by: Geert Mesters, Universitat Pompeu Fabra
The Ins and Outs of Unemployment in the Long Run: Unemployment Flows and the Natural Rate
By Murat Tasci; Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
   presented by: Murat Tasci, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Global Perspective on Structural Labour Market Reforms in Europe
By Povilas Lastauskas; University of Cambridge
   presented by: Povilas Lastauskas, University of Cambridge
Session 66: Peer effects
June 24, 2016 10:30 to 11:50
U6-41
Session type: contributed
Young Adults Living with their Parents and the Influence of Peers
By Effrosyni Adamopoulou; Bank of Italy
Ezgi Kaya; Cardiff University
   presented by: Effrosyni Adamopoulou, Bank of Italy
Estimation of Peer Effects in Linear Models of Panel Data with Individual and Group Effects
By Valentin Verdier; University of North Carolina, Chapel Hil
   presented by: Valentin Verdier, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hil
The Impact of Peer Effects on Student Outcomes: Evidence from Colombia.
By Jorge Tamayo; University of Southern California and Banco de la Republica de Colombia
   presented by: Jorge Tamayo, University of Southern California and Banco de la Republica de Colombia
Endogenous Shocks in Social Networks: Effects of Students’ Exam Retakes on their Friends’ Future Performance
By Maria Marchenko; University of Mannheim
   presented by: Maria Marchenko, University of Mannheim
Session 67: Asset Prices: Tails and VaR
June 24, 2016 10:30 to 11:50
U6-33
Session type: contributed
Fat tails and copulas: Limits of diversi cation revisited
By Rustam Ibragimov; Imperial College London
Jingyuan Mo; NYU Stern School of Business
Artem Prokhorov; University of Sydney
   presented by: Artem Prokhorov, University of Sydney
Forecasting Value-at-Risk by Estimating the Quantiles of the Intra-Day Low and High Series
By Xiaochun Meng; Oxford University
James Taylor
   presented by: Xiaochun Meng, Oxford University
Median Response to Shocks: A Model for VaR Spillovers in East Asia
By Fabrizio Cipollini; University of Firenze
giampiero gallo; Università di Firenze
Andrea Ugolini; University of Firenze
   presented by: giampiero gallo, Università di Firenze
Fractionally Integrated Multivariate Models for Fat-Tailed Realized Covariance Kernels and Returns
By Andre Lucas; VU University Amsterdam
Anne Opschoor; Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
   presented by: Anne Opschoor, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
Session 68: Health: Policy evaluations
June 24, 2016 10:30 to 11:50
U6-38
Session type: contributed
Promoting Normal Birth and Reducing Caesarean Section Rates: An Evaluation of the Rapid Improvement Programme
By Graham Cookson; University of Surrey
Ioannis Laliotis; University of Surrey
   presented by: Ioannis Laliotis, University of Surrey
Prenatal Care and Birthweight in Mexico (CANCELLED)
By Santosh Kumar; Sam Houston State University
Fidel Gonzalez; Sam Houston State University
   presented by: Fidel Gonzalez, Sam Houston State University
Endogeneity in parametric duration models with applications to clinical risk indices
By Anand Acharya; Carleton University
Lynda Khalaf; Carleton University
Marcel Voia; Carleton University
David Wensley; UBC
   presented by: Marcel Voia, Carleton University
Smoking Cessation: A Panel Data Analysis Using HRS
By Kajal Lahiri; State University New York Albany
   presented by: Kajal Lahiri, State University New York Albany
Session 69: Labor Supply
June 24, 2016 10:30 to 11:50
U6-36
Session type: contributed
How Important is Precautionary Labor Supply?
By Robin Jessen; Freie Universität Berlin
Davud Rostam-Afschar; Freie Universitaet Berlin
Sebastian Schmitz; Freie Universitaet Berlin
   presented by: Sebastian Schmitz, Freie Universitaet Berlin
Estimating Labor-Supply Elasticities with Joint Borrowing Constraints of Couples
By Christian Bredemeier; University of Cologne
Jan Hendrik Gravert; University of Wuppertal
Falko Juessen; University of Wuppertal
   presented by: Jan Hendrik Gravert, University of Wuppertal
Early retirement eligibility and employment behavior: evidence from a cohort based pension reform
By Johannes Geyer; DIW Berlin
Peter Haan; DIW Berlin, FU Berlin
Clara Welteke; DIW
   presented by: Clara Welteke, DIW
Labor Supply Inertia and Lagged Tax Responses: Effects of State Dependence and Adjustment Costs
By Zhiyang Jia; Statistics Norway
Trine Vattø; Statistics Norway
   presented by: Zhiyang Jia, Statistics Norway
Session 70: Econometrics of Networks
June 24, 2016 10:30 to 11:50
U6-32
Session type: contributed
Realized Networks (CANCELLED)
By Christian Brownlees; UPF
Eulalia Nualart; UPF
Yucheng Sun; UPF
   presented by: Christian Brownlees, UPF
Estimation of Endogenous Network Externalities
By Santiago Pereda-Fernández; Banca d’Italia
Paolo Zacchia; IMT Lucca
   presented by: Paolo Zacchia, IMT Lucca
Parametric and Semiparametric IV Estimation of Network Models with Selectivity
By Tiziano Arduini; University of Bologna
Eleonora Patacchini; Cornell University
Edoardo Rainone; Bank of Italy
   presented by: Tiziano Arduini, University of Bologna
INFERENCE ON SOCIAL EFFECTS WHEN THE NETWORK IS UNKNOWN USING CONVEX OR LINEAR PROGRAMMING
By Eric Gautier; Toulouse School of Economics
   presented by: Eric Gautier, Toulouse School of Economics
Session 71: Sovereign Debt
June 24, 2016 10:30 to 11:50
U6-30
Session type: contributed
Composition of sovereign debt and financial development: a dynamic heterogeneous panel approach
By Paola Di Casola; Sveriges Riksbank
Spyridon Sichlimiris; Stockholm School of Economics
   presented by: Spyridon Sichlimiris, Örebro university
Sovereign credit rating determinants: the impact of the European debt crisis
By Peter Reusens; KU Leuven
Christophe Croux; KU Leuven
   presented by: Peter Reusens, KU Leuven
Exit expectations and debt crises in currency unions (CANCELLED)
By Alexander Kriwoluzky; Martin-Luther-Universität Halle-Wittenb
Gernot Mueller; University of Tuebingen
Martin Wolf; University of Bonn
   presented by: Martin Wolf, University of Bonn
Tail risk in government bond markets and ECB asset purchases
By Xin Zhang; Sveriges Riksbank
Bernd Schwaab; European Central Bank
   presented by: Bernd Schwaab, European Central Bank
Session 72: Topics in Empirical Trade
June 24, 2016 14:15 to 15:35
U6-36
Session type: contributed
Supply Function Competetition and Exporters: Nonparametric Identification and Estimation of Productivity Distributions and Marginal Costs (CANCELLED)
By Ayse Pehlivan; Bilkent University
Quang Vuong; New York University
   presented by: Ayse Pehlivan, Bilkent University
Financial Constraints, Firms’ Supply Chains and Internationalization
By Raoul Minetti; Michigan State University
Pierluigi Murro; LUMSA University
Zeno Rotondi; UniCredit
Susan Chun Zhu; Michigan State University
   presented by: Pierluigi Murro, LUMSA University
Multiproduct Exporters: Learning vs. Knowing
By Kala Krishna; Penn State University
Lena Sheveleva; Penn State University, Cardiff Business School
   presented by: Lena Sheveleva, Penn State University, Cardiff Business School
Can Productivity Follow a Pareto distribution if Exports “Look” Log-normal?
By Marnix Amand; Universite de Lausanne – HEC Lausanne
Florian Pelgrin; EDHEC Business School
   presented by: Marnix Amand, Universite de Lausanne – HEC Lausanne
Session 73: Fiscal Policy
June 24, 2016 14:15 to 15:35
U6-42
Session type: contributed
Do Fiscal Multipliers Depend on Fiscal Positions?
By Raju Huidrom; World Bank
Ayhan Kose; World Bank
Jamus Lim; The World Bank
Franziska Ohnsorge; World Bank
   presented by: Raju Huidrom, World Bank
Government Spending Multipliers under the Zero Lower Bound: Evidence from Japan
By Wataru Miyamoto; Bank of Canada
Thuy Lan Nguyen; Santa Clara University
Dmitriy Sergeyev; Bocconi University
   presented by: Dmitriy Sergeyev, Bocconi University
Delayed Mimicking: The Timing of Fiscal Interactions in Europe (CANCELLED)
By Marie-Pierre Hory; Université d’Orléans
   presented by: Marie-Pierre Hory, Université d’Orléans
A New Test of Ricardian Equivalence Using the Narrative Record on Tax Changes
[slides]
By Alfred Haug; University of Otago
   presented by: Alfred Haug, University of Otago
Session 74: Forecast Evaluation
June 24, 2016 14:15 to 15:35
U6-40
Session type: contributed
Dissecting Models’ Forecasting Performance
By Boriss Siliverstovs; ETH Zurich
   presented by: Boriss Siliverstovs, ETH Zurich
Alternative Tests for Correct Specification of Conditional Forecast Densities
By Barbara Rossi; ICREA-Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona GSE and CREI
Tatevik Sekhposyan; Texas A&M University
   presented by: Barbara Rossi, ICREA-Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona GSE and CREI
Robust Forecast Comparison
By Valentina Corradi; University of Surrey
sainan Jin; Singapore Management University
   presented by: Valentina Corradi, University of Surrey
Tests of Equal Accuracy for Nested Models with Estimated Factors
By Silvia Goncalves; University of Western Ontario
Michael McCracken; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Benoit Perron; Universite de Montreal
   presented by: Michael McCracken, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Session 75: DSGE Models (2)
June 24, 2016 14:15 to 15:35
U6-32
Session type: contributed
Parameter Bias in an Estimated DSGE Model: Does Nonlinearity Matter?
By Yasuo Hirose; Keio University
Takeki Sunakawa; University of Tokyo Graduate School of Public Policy
   presented by: Yasuo Hirose, Keio University
Bootstrapping DSGE models
By Giovanni Angelini; University of Bologna
Giuseppe Cavaliere; University of Bologna
Luca Fanelli; University of Bologna
   presented by: Luca Fanelli, University of Bologna
A time-varying COMPASS Model
[slides]
By George Kapetanios; Queen Mary, University of London
Riccardo Maria Masolo; Bank of England
Katerina Petrova; Queen Mary University London
Matthew Waldron; Bank of England
   presented by: Riccardo Maria Masolo, Bank of England
Regime Changes in the Terms of Trade
By Han Chen; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserv
Mariano Kulish; University of New South Wales
Federico Mandelman; Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
   presented by: Han Chen, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserv
Session 76: Structural VARs (2)
June 24, 2016 14:15 to 15:35
U6-33
Session type: contributed
Assessing Monetary Policy Models: Bayesian Inference for Heteroskedastic Structural VARs
By Tomasz Wozniak; University of Melbourne
Matthieu Droumaguet; European University Institute
   presented by: Tomasz Wozniak, University of Melbourne
Assessing identifying restrictions in SVAR models
By Michele Piffer; DIW Berlin
   presented by: Michele Piffer, DIW Berlin
Calculating Joint Confidence Bands for Impulse Response Functions using Highest Density Regions
By Helmut Lutkepohl; DIW Berlin
Anna Staszewska-Bystrova; University of Lodz
Peter Winker; University of Giessen
   presented by: Helmut Lutkepohl, DIW Berlin
Testing for Identification in SVAR-GARCH Models
By Helmut Lutkepohl; DIW Berlin
George Milunovich; Macquarie University
   presented by: George Milunovich, Macquarie University
Session 77: Credit Risk and Liquidity
June 24, 2016 14:15 to 15:35
U6-30
Session type: contributed
Cyclicality in Losses on Bank Loans
By Bart Diris; Erasmus University Rotterdam
Bart Keijsers; Erasmus University Rotterdam
Erik Kole; Erasmus University Rotterdam
   presented by: Bart Keijsers, Erasmus University Rotterdam
Estimating the Tax and Credit-Event Risk Components of Credit Spreads
By Luca Benzoni; Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
   presented by: Luca Benzoni, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Financial Trading Over The Years: A Multifractal Intensity Perspective
By Lorenzo Braccini; Banca d’Italia
   presented by: Lorenzo Braccini, Banca d’Italia
Networks in risk spillovers: a multivariate GARCH perspective
By Monica Billio; Università di Venezia
Massimiliano Caporin; University of Padova
Lorenzo Frattarolo; University Ca’ Foscari Venezia
Loriana Pelizzon; SAFE – Goethe University
   presented by: Massimiliano Caporin, University of Padova
Session 78: Credit and Microfinance
June 24, 2016 14:15 to 15:35
U6-35
Session type: contributed
Financial Frictions and the Delay to Entry
By Pierre Nguimkeu; Georgia State University
   presented by: Pierre Nguimkeu, Georgia State University
Debt Financing in Private and Public Firms
By Kim Huynh; Bank of Canada
Teodora Paligorova; Bank of Canada
Robert Petrunia; Lakehead Universtiy
   presented by: Robert Petrunia, Lakehead Universtiy
Do your Rivals Enhance your Access to Credit? Theory and Evidence
By Vittoria Cerasi; Milano-Bicocca University
Alessandro Fedele; Free University of Bolzano/Bozen
Raffaele Miniaci; University of Brescia
   presented by: Raffaele Miniaci, University of Brescia
Hui: A Case Study of a Sequential Double Auction of Capital
By Timothy Hubbard; Colby College
Harry Paarsch; University of Central Florida
Will Wright; University of Melbourne
   presented by: Harry Paarsch, University of Central Florida
Session 79: Regression Discontinuity Designs
June 24, 2016 14:15 to 15:35
U6-41
Session type: contributed
Assessing the Monotonicity Assumption in IV and fuzzy RD designs
By Mario Fiorini; University of Technology Sydney
Katrien Stevens; University of Sydney
   presented by: Mario Fiorini, University of Technology Sydney
Bootstrap Confidence Intervals for Sharp Regression Discontinuity Designs with the Uniform Kernel
By Otavio Bartalotti; Iowa State University
Gray Calhoun; Iowa State University
Yang He; Iowa State University
   presented by: Otavio Bartalotti, Iowa State University
Regression Discontinuity Design with Continuous Measurement Error in the Running Variable
By Laurent Davezies; Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique
   presented by: Laurent Davezies, Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique
Identification and Inference in Regression Discontinuity Designs with Manipulated Running Variables
By Francois Gerard; Columbia University
Miikka Rokkanen; Columbia University
Christoph Rothe; Columbia University
   presented by: Christoph Rothe, Columbia University
Session 80: Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy
June 24, 2016 14:15 to 15:35
U6-39
Session type: contributed
The Effects of Monetary Policy on Industry-level Stock Returns in a Changing World
By Pierre Guerin; Bank of Canada
Danilo Leiva-Leon; Central Bank of Chile
   presented by: Danilo Leiva-Leon, Central Bank of Chile
If the Fed sneezes, who catches a cold?
By Luca Dedola; European Central Bank
Giulia Rivolta; University of Brescia
Livio Stracca; European Central Bank
   presented by: Giulia Rivolta, University of Brescia
International Capital Flows and Unconventional Monetary Policy
By Stephanie Curcuru; Federal Reserve Board
Chiara Scotti; Federal Reserve Board
   presented by: Chiara Scotti, Federal Reserve Board
Foreign Banks and Monetary Policy in Central and Eastern Europe
By Piotr Denderski; VU University Amsterdam
Wojciech Paczos; Cardiff University
   presented by: Piotr Denderski, VU University Amsterdam
Session 81: Demographics of the Household
June 24, 2016 14:15 to 15:35
U6-37
Session type: contributed
Potential Parenthood and Career Progression of Men and Women – A Simultaneous Hazards Approach
By Martin Biewen; University of Tübingen
Stefanie Seifert; University of Tuebingen
   presented by: Stefanie Seifert, University of Tuebingen
Employment Risk and Household Formation: Evidence from Differences in Firing Costs
By Cristina Barcelo; Banco de España
Mario Garcia-Ferreira; NERA
Ernesto Villanueva; Banco de España
   presented by: Ernesto Villanueva, Banco de España
Marriage Age, Social Status and Intergenerational Effects in Uganda
By Naveen Sunder; Cornell University
   presented by: Naveen Sunder, Cornell University
Estimating Binary Response Panel Data Models with Selection and Endogeneity: Fertility and Women’s Self-Employment
By Anastasia Semykina; Florida State University
   presented by: Anastasia Semykina, Florida State University
Session 82: Education II
June 24, 2016 14:15 to 15:35
U6-38
Session type: contributed
Fertility Effects of College Education – Evidence from the German Educational Expansion
By Matthias Westphal; University of Duisburg-Essen
   presented by: Matthias Westphal, University of Duisburg-Essen
The Role of Time Preferences in Educational Decision Making
By Daniel Kemptner; DIW Berlin
Songül Tolan
   presented by: Songül Tolan, DIW Berlin
Cities Drifting Apart: Heterogeneous Outcomes of Decentralizing Public Education
By Zelda Brutti; European University Institute
   presented by: Zelda Brutti, European University Institute
What Makes Brain Drain More Likely?
By Romuald Meango; Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy
   presented by: Romuald Meango, Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy
Session 83: Commodity Prices
June 24, 2016 14:15 to 15:35
U6-34
Session type: contributed
Does the volatility of commodity prices reflect macroeconomic uncertainty?
By Marc Joëts; Banque de France
   presented by: Marc Joëts, Banque de France and University of Paris
Commodity Dynamics: a Sparse Multi-class Approach
By Luca Barbaglia; KU Leuven
Ines Wilms; KU Leuven
Christophe Croux; KU Leuven
   presented by: Luca Barbaglia, KU Leuven
The eff ect of oil price shocks on stock market returns and exchange rates: Evidence from oil inventory announcements
By Reinhard Ellwanger; Bank of Canada
   presented by: Reinhard Ellwanger, Bank of Canada
Session 84: Vector Autoregressions (1)
June 24, 2016 16:10 to 17:30
U6-33
Session type: contributed
Large Vector Autoregressions with asymmetric priors and time varying volatilities
By Andrea Carriero; Queen Mary Univerity of London
Todd Clark; Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Massimiliano Marcellino; Bocconi University
   presented by: Andrea Carriero, Queen Mary Univerity of London
On the identification of non-normal shocks in structural VAR
By Lorenzo Ricci; Université libre de Bruxelles
   presented by: Lorenzo Ricci, Université libre de Bruxelles
Restrictions Search for Panel VARs
By Annika Schnücker; DIW Berlin
   presented by: Annika Schnücker, DIW Berlin
Demand and Supply Elasticities and Oil Price Fluctuations: A VAR Approach
By Dario Caldara; Federal Reserve Board
Michele Cavallo; Federal Reserve Board
Matteo Iacoviello; Federal Reserve Board
   presented by: Michele Cavallo, Federal Reserve Board
Session 85: Advances in Econometrics II
June 24, 2016 16:10 to 17:30
U6-41
Session type: contributed
Regression Discontinuity Designs with Sample Selection
By Yingying Dong; University of California Irvine
   presented by: Yingying Dong, University of California Irvine
Welfare Analysis for Discrete Choice with Interval-data on Income
By Ying-Ying Lee; University of Oxford
Debopam Bhattacharya; University of Cambridge
   presented by: Ying-Ying Lee, University of Oxford
Two-Sample Least Squares Projection
By David Pacini; University of Bristol
   presented by: David Pacini, University of Bristol
A Partially Parametric Model
By Daniel Henderson; University of Alabama
Christopher Parmeter; University of Miami
   presented by: Daniel Henderson, University of Alabama
Session 86: Inflation Expectations and Ucertainty
June 24, 2016 16:10 to 17:30
U6-42
Session type: contributed
Inflation expectations and monetary policy shocks in Europe
By Elena Andreou; University of Cyprus
Snezana Eminidou; University of Cyprus
Marios Zachariadis; University of Cyprus
   presented by: Elena Andreou, University of Cyprus
The Evolution of Inflation Expectations in Euro Area Markets
By Eva Ortega; Bank of Spain
   presented by: Eva Ortega, Bank of Spain
The Anchoring of Inflation Expectations: A Bayesian Approach.
By Alaa Abi Morshed; Tilburg University
   presented by: Alaa Abi Morshed, Tilburg University
Extracting the structure of the shocks of information perceived by the Bank of England
By Carlos Diaz; University of Leicester
   presented by: Carlos Diaz, University of Leicester
Session 87: News and Uncertainty in the Macroeconomy
June 24, 2016 16:10 to 17:30
U6-30
Session type: contributed
The Value of News
By Vegard Larsen; BI Norwegian Business School
Leif Anders Thorsrud; BI Norwegian Business School
   presented by: Vegard Larsen, BI Norwegian Business School
Understanding Fluctuations in Uncertainty: A New Keynesian Interpretation
By Giovanni Pellegrino; University of Verona
   presented by: Giovanni Pellegrino, University of Verona
Risk and Uncertainty in Sovereign Debt Markets
By Christoph Grosse Steffen; DIW Berlin
Maximilian Podstawski; DIW Berlin
   presented by: Christoph Grosse Steffen, DIW Berlin
Session 88: Factor Models: Estimation and Inference
June 24, 2016 16:10 to 17:30
U6-39
Session type: contributed
Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Time-Varying Loadings in High-Dimensional Factor Models
By Jakob Mikkelsen; Aarhus University
Eric Hillebrand; Aarhus University
Giovanni Urga; Cass Business School
   presented by: Eric Hillebrand, Aarhus University
Generalized Efficient Inference on Factor Models with Long-Range Dependence
By Yunus Emre Ergemen; CREATES, Aarhus University
   presented by: Yunus Emre Ergemen, CREATES, Aarhus University
Evaluating Restricted Common Factor models for non-stationary data
By Francesca Di Iorio; Università di Napoli Federico II
Stefano Fachin; University of Rome
   presented by: Stefano Fachin, University of Rome
Session 89: Topics in Financial Econometrics (1)
June 24, 2016 16:10 to 17:30
U6-35
Session type: contributed
A TEST OF GENERAL ASYMMETRIC DEPENDENCE
By Lei Jiang; Tsinghua University
Esfandiar Maasoumi; Emory
Jiening Pan; Nankai University
Ke Wu; Renmin University of China
   presented by: Jiening Pan, Nankai University
Ex-post Risk Premia Tests using Individual Stocks: The IV-GMM solution to the EIV problem
By Soohun Kim; Georgia Institute of Technology
Georgios Skoulakis; University of British Columbia
   presented by: Georgios Skoulakis, University of British Columbia
Nonparametric State-Price Density Estimation using High Frequency Data (CANCELLED)
By Jeroen Dalderop; University of Cambridge
   presented by: Jeroen Dalderop, University of Cambridge
Multivariate return decomposition: theory and implications
By Stanislav Anatolyev; New Economic School
Nikolay Gospodinov; Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
   presented by: Stanislav Anatolyev, CERGE-EI and New Economic School
Session 90: Monetary Policy Reaction Functions
June 24, 2016 16:10 to 17:30
U6-34
Session type: contributed
Has the Fed Responded to House and Stock Prices? A Time-Varying Analysis
By Knut Are Aastveit; Norges Bank
Francesco Furlanetto; Norges Bank
Francesca Loria; European University Institute
   presented by: Knut Are Aastveit, Norges Bank
Do central banks respond timely to developments in the global economy?
By Hilde Bjornland; BI Norwegian Business School
Leif Anders Thorsrud; BI Norwegian Business School
Sepideh Zahiri; BI Norwegian Business School
   presented by: Hilde Bjornland, BI Norwegian Business School
A shadow policy rate to calibrate US monetary policy at the zero lower bound
By Marco Lombardi; Bank for International Settlements
Feng Zhu; Bank for International Settlements
   presented by: Marco Lombardi, Bank for International Settlements
Do Estimated Taylor Rules Suffer from Weak Identification?
By Juan Urquiza; Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile
Christian Murray; University of Houston
   presented by: Juan Urquiza, Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile
Session 91: Dynamics of Labor Supply
June 24, 2016 16:10 to 17:30
U6-38
Session type: contributed
An Analysis of the Australian Social Security System using a Life-Cycle Model of Labor Supply with Asset Accumulation and Human Capital
By Fedor Iskhakov; University of New South Wales
Michael Keane; University of Oxford
   presented by: Fedor Iskhakov, University of New South Wales
Labor Supply of Mothers: The Role of Time Discounting
By Ulrich Schneider; DIW Berlin
Luke Haywood; DIW Berlin
Peter Haan; DIW Berlin, FU Berlin
   presented by: Ulrich Schneider, DIW Berlin
The Life Cycle Effects of Pension Reforms: A Structural Approach
By Claudio Daminato; University of Verona
Mario Padula
   presented by: Claudio Daminato, University of Verona
Home Production and Retirement in Couples: A Panel Data Analysis
By Eric Bonsang
Arthur van Soest; Tilburg University
   presented by: Arthur van Soest, Tilburg University
Session 92: Bad behavior
June 24, 2016 16:10 to 17:30
U6-37
Session type: contributed
The Effect of Indoor Prostitution on Sex Crime
[slides]
By Riccardo Ciacci; EUI
   presented by: Riccardo Ciacci, EUI
Bullying among Adolescents: The Role of Cognitive and Non-Cognitive Skills
By Miguel Sarzosa; Purdue University
Sergio Urzua; University of Maryland, College Park
   presented by: Miguel Sarzosa, Purdue University
Bad Behavior: Delinquency, Arrest and Early School Leaving
By Jenny Williams; University of Melbourne
Shannon Ward; University of Melbourne
Jan Van Ours; Tilburg University
   presented by: Jenny Williams, University of Melbourne
Criminal Discount Factors and Deterrence
By Giovanni Mastrobuoni; University of Essex
David Rivers; University of Western Ontario
   presented by: Giovanni Mastrobuoni, University of Essex
Session 93: Topics in Monetary Policy (2)
June 24, 2016 16:10 to 17:30
U6-40
Session type: contributed
The Financial Stability Dark Side of Monetary Policy
By Piergiorgio Alessandri; Banca d’Italia
Antonio Conti; Bank of Italy
Fabrizio Venditti; Banca d’Italia
   presented by: Antonio Conti, Bank of Italy
Financial Imbalances, Macroeconomic Vulnerabilities, and Monetary Policy
By David Aikman; Bank of England
Andreas Lehnert; Federal Reserve Board
Nellie Liang; Federal Reserve Board
Michele Modugno; Federal Reserve Board of Governors
   presented by: Michele Modugno, Federal Reserve Board of Governors
Were the ECB announcements Odyessean or Delphic?
By Philippe Andrade; Banque de France
Filippo Ferroni; Banque de France
   presented by: Filippo Ferroni, European Commission
Monetary policy, uncertainty and gross capital flows: A mixed frequency approach
By Emanuele Bacchiocchi; University of Milan
Andrea Bastianin; University of Milan-Bicocca
Alessandro Missale; University of Milan
Eduardo Rossi; University of Pavia
   presented by: Emanuele Bacchiocchi, University of Milan
Session 94: Education: Policy Evaluations
June 24, 2016 16:10 to 17:30
U6-36
Session type: contributed
Whom did Sekolah Desar INPRES benefit?
By Tushar Bharati; University of Southern California
Seungwoo Chin; University of Southern California
Dawoon Jung; University of Southern California
   presented by: Tushar Bharati, University of Southern California
Can Technology Overcome Social Disadvantage of School Children’s Learning Outcomes? Evidence from a Large Scale Experiment in India
By Gopal Naik; Indian Institute of Management
Chetan Chitre; IIM Bangalore
Manaswini Bhalla; Indian Institute of Management, Bangalore
Jothsna Rajan; IIM Bangalore
   presented by: Chetan Chitre, IIM Bangalore
Student Matching and Tracking under Accountability: Evidence from No Child Left Behind
By Michael Gilraine; University of Toronto
   presented by: Michael Gilraine, University of Toronto
Short-Term Effects of Secondary School Tracking in Germany: A Dis-Aggregated Synthetic Control Approach
By Aderonke Osikominu; University of Hohenheim
Gregor Pfeifer; U Hohenheim
Kristina Strohmaier; Ruhr University Bochum
   presented by: Gregor Pfeifer, U Hohenheim
Session 95: Time Series Models (4)
June 24, 2016 16:10 to 17:30
U6-32
Session type: contributed
Assessing Causality and Delay within a Frequency Band
By Joerg Breitung; University of Cologne
Sven Schreiber; Hans Böckler Foundation, and Free U Ber
   presented by: Sven Schreiber, Hans Böckler Foundation, and Free U Ber
Testing for independence and representing auto-dependence
By Matteo Pelagatti; Università degli Studi di Milano-Bicocc
   presented by: Matteo Pelagatti, Università degli Studi di Milano-Bicocc
Discovering common trends in a large set of disaggregates: statistical procedures and their properties
By Guillermo Carlomagno; Carlos III
Antoni Espasa; University Carlos III
   presented by: Guillermo Carlomagno, Carlos III
Matrix Inequality Constraints for Vector Asymmetric Power HEAVY/MEM/GARCH Models and some New Mixture Formulations
By Menelaos Karanasos; Brunel University
Y. Xu; Cardiff University
   presented by: Menelaos Karanasos, Brunel University
Session 96: Topics in Empirical Finance (2)
June 25, 2016 10:10 to 11:30
U6-40
Session type: contributed
Pricing Short-Term Market Risk: Evidence from Weekly Options
By Torben Andersen; Northwestern University Kellogg School of Management
Nicola Fusari; Johns Hopkins Carey Business School
Viktor Todorov; Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern
   presented by: Nicola Fusari, Johns Hopkins Carey Business School
Financial Crises and the Dynamic Linkages Between Stock and Bond Returns
By Faek Menla Ali; Brunel University London
Sercan Eraslan; Hamburg University
   presented by: Sercan Eraslan, Hamburg University
CoRisk: measuring systemic risk through default probability contagion
By Laura Parisi; University of Pavia
   presented by: Laura Parisi, University of Pavia
Macroeconomic expectations and the time-varying stock-bond correlation: international evidence (CANCELLED)
By Christian Conrad; University of Heidelberg
   presented by: Christian Conrad, University of Heidelberg
Session 97: Topics Empirical Macroeconomics (3)
June 25, 2016 10:10 to 11:30
U6-34
Session type: contributed
Aging of the Baby Boomers: Demographics and Propagation of Tax Shocks
By Domenico Ferraro; Arizona State University
Giuseppe Fiori; North Carolina State University
   presented by: Giuseppe Fiori, North Carolina State University
The Q theory of investment: new evidence from a time-frequency analysis
By Fabio Verona; Bank of Finland
   presented by: Fabio Verona, Bank of Finland
Ambiguous Information, Permanent Income, and Consumption Fluctuations
By Donghoon Yoo; University of Lausanne
   presented by: Donghoon Yoo, University of Lausanne
Empirical evidence on the Euler equation for consumption and output in the US
By Guido Ascari; University of Oxford
Leandro Magnusson; University of Western Australia
Sophocles Mavroeidis; Oxford University
   presented by: Leandro Magnusson, University of Western Australia
Session 98: Inflation Dynamics
June 25, 2016 10:10 to 11:30
U6-42
Session type: contributed
Inflation and Professional Forecast Dynamics: An Evaluation of Stickiness, Persistence, and Volatility
By Elmar Mertens; Federal Reserve Board
James Nason; North Carolina State University
   presented by: Elmar Mertens, Federal Reserve Board
International dynamics of inflation expectations
By Aleksei Netsunajev; Freie Universitat Berlin
Lars Winkelmann; Freie Universität Berlin
   presented by: Lars Winkelmann, Freie Universität Berlin
The Joint Dynamics of the U.S. and Euro-area Inflation: Expectations and Time-varying Uncertainty
By Olesya Grishchenko; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Sarah Mouabbi; Banque de France
Jean-Paul RENNE; HEC Lausanne
   presented by: Sarah Mouabbi, Banque de France
In‡flation convergence in the EMU and the link between inflation differentials and their uncertainty
By Panagiotis Koutroumpis; Brunel University
   presented by: Panagiotis Koutroumpis, Brunel University
Session 99: Price Inflation (2)
June 25, 2016 10:10 to 11:30
U6-41
Session type: contributed
Ambiguity, Monetary Policy and Trend Inflation
By Riccardo Maria Masolo; Bank of England
Francesca Monti; Bank of England
   presented by: Francesca Monti, Bank of England
Price Level Dispersion versus Inflation Rate Dispersion: Evidence from Three Countries
By Christopher Hajzler; Bank of Canada
David Fielding; University of Otago
James MacGee; University of Western Ontario
   presented by: Christopher Hajzler, Bank of Canada
Do long term interest rates drive GDP and inflation in small open economies? Evidence from Poland
By Grzegorz Wesołowski; Warsaw School of Economics
   presented by: Grzegorz Wesołowski, Warsaw School of Economics
Forecasting Inflation: Phillips Curve Effects on Services Price Measures
By Saeed Zaman; Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Ellis Tallman; Oberlin College
   presented by: Saeed Zaman, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Session 100: Topics in Time Series and Topics in Bank Risk
June 25, 2016 10:10 to 11:30
U6-33 U6-37
Session type: contributed
Inversion Copulas from Nonlinear State Space Models
By Michael Smith; University of Melbourne
   presented by: Michael Smith, University of Melbourne
The adaptive Lasso for Specifying Autoregressive Moving-Average Models
By Christian Kascha; University of Zurich
   presented by: Christian Kascha, University of Zurich
Specification testing in Hawkes models
By Francine Gresnigt; Erasmus University Rotterdam
   presented by: Francine Gresnigt, Erasmus University Rotterdam
Big data models of bank risk contagion
[slides]
By Paola Cerchiello
Paolo Giudici; University of Pavia
   presented by: Paolo Giudici, University of Pavia
Session 101: Structural VARs (3)
June 25, 2016 10:10 to 11:30
U6-33
Session type: contributed
A quasi-Bayesian nonparametric approach to time varying parameter VAR models
By Katerina Petrova; Queen Mary University London
   presented by: Katerina Petrova, Queen Mary University London
Data-Driven Inference on Sign Restrictions in Bayesian Structural Vector Autoregression
By Markku Lanne; University of Helsinki
Jani Luoto; University of Helsinki
   presented by: Jani Luoto, University of Helsinki
A Bayesian Infi nite Hidden Markov Structural Vector Autoregressive Model
By Didier Nibbering; Erasmus University Rotterdam
Richard Paap; Erasmus University Rotterdam
Michel van der Wel; Erasmus University Rotterdam
   presented by: Didier Nibbering, Erasmus University Rotterdam
On the importance of testing structural identification schemes and the potential consequences of incorrectly identified models.
By Anton Velinov; DIW Berlin
   presented by: Anton Velinov, DIW Berlin
Session 102: Difference-in-differences
June 25, 2016 10:10 to 11:30
U6-39
Session type: contributed
The effect of innovation on quality and prices: Evidence from the French fish market
By Laurent Gobillon; Paris School of Economics
François-Charles Wolff; University of Nantes
   presented by: François-Charles Wolff, University of Nantes
Inference in Differences-in-Differences with Few Treated Groups and Heteroskedasticity
By Bruno Ferman; Sao Paulo School of Economics – FGV
Cristine Pinto; São Paulo School of Economics – EESP/FGV
   presented by: Bruno Ferman, Sao Paulo School of Economics – FGV
The changes-in-changes model with covariates
By Blaise Melly; University of Bern
Giulia Santangelo; European Commission – Joint Research Centre
   presented by: Giulia Santangelo, European Commission – Joint Research Centre
Difference-in-Differences Inference with Few Treated Clusters
By James MacKinnon; Queen’s University
Matthew Webb; Carleton University
   presented by: Matthew Webb, Carleton University
Session 103: Topics in Financial Econometrics (2)
June 25, 2016 10:10 to 11:30
U6-30
Session type: contributed
Vector Error Correction Model in Diverging Dimensions with Application in High Frequency Trading Data
By Chong Liang; Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
Melanie Schienle; Karlsuhe Institute of Technology
   presented by: Chong Liang, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
Measuring transaction costs in the absence of time stamps
By Filip Zikes; Federal Reserve Board
   presented by: Filip Zikes, Federal Reserve Board
Posterior Inference for Portfolio Weights
By Christoph Frey; University of Konstanz
Winfried Pohlmeier; UNIVERSITY OF KONSTANZ
Stefan Voigt; WU Vienna
   presented by: Christoph Frey, University of Konstanz
Modelling financial contagion using high frequency data
By Wenying Yao; Monash University
Mardi Dungey; University of Tasmania
   presented by: Wenying Yao, Monash University
Session 104: Monetary Policy: Channels of Influence
June 25, 2016 10:10 to 11:30
Session type: contributed
The Mortgage Credit Channel of Macroeconomic Transmission
By Daniel Greenwald; New York University
   presented by: Daniel Greenwald, New York University
The credit channel during times of financial stress: A time varying VAR analysis
By Geraldine Dany; Halle Institute for Economic Research
   presented by: Geraldine Dany, Halle Institute for Economic Research
Heterogeneity in euro area monetary policy transmission: results from a large multi-country BVAR model
By Martin Mandler; Deutsche Bundesbank
Michael Scharnagl; Deutsche Bundesbank
   presented by: Michael Scharnagl, Deutsche Bundesbank
Cross-Border Bank Funding Shocks and the Bank Lending Channel in a Monetary Union: Evidence from Slovenia
By Uroš Herman; Goethe University Frankfurt
Matija Lozej; Central Bank of Ireland
   presented by: Matija Lozej, Central Bank of Ireland
Session 105: Preferences and Expectations
June 25, 2016 10:10 to 11:30
U6-35
Session type: contributed
Individual risk and time preferences: a joint task approach
By Mitzi Perez; Tilburg University
   presented by: Mitzi Perez, Tilburg University
Does education affect time preference?
By Dawoon Jung; University of Southern California
Tushar Bharati; University of Southern California
Seungwoo Chin; University of Southern California
   presented by: Dawoon Jung, University of Southern California
Test-retest reliability of subjective survival expectations
By Jochem de Bresser; University of Groningen
   presented by: Jochem de Bresser, University of Groningen
Women, confidence, and financial literacy
By Tabea Bucher-Koenen; Max-Planck-Institute for Social Law and
Rob Alessie; University of Groningen
Annamaria Lusardi; George Washington University
Maarten van Rooij
   presented by: Tabea Bucher-Koenen, Max-Planck-Institute for Social Law and
Session 106: Heterogeneous coefficients
June 25, 2016 10:10 to 11:30
U6-32
Session type: contributed
Estimation of Technical Change and Price Elasticities: A Categorical Time-varying Coefficient Approach
By Xiaohui Zhang; Murdoch University
   presented by: Xiaohui Zhang, Murdoch University
Modeling Heterogeneity by Structural Varying Coecients Models
By Giacomo Benini; Université de Genève
   presented by: Giacomo Benini, Université de Genève
Estimating individual effects and their spatial spillovers in linear panel data models
By Karen Alejandra Miranda Gualdrón; Universitat Rovira i Virgili
Oscar Martinez; Roviria i Virgili University
Miguel Manjón; URV
   presented by: Karen Alejandra Miranda Gualdrón, Universitat Rovira i Virgili
Efficient and rate optimal estimation and inference in nonparametric varying coefficient panel data models
By Juan Rodriguez-Poo; Universidad de Cantabria
Alexandra Soberon; Universidad de Cantabria
Winfried Stute; JLU Gießen
   presented by: Alexandra Soberon, Universidad de Cantabria
Session 107: IAAE Invited Lecture: Peter CB Phillips (Yale University)
June 22, 2016 13:45 to 14:45
Session type: invited
Session 108: Special Keynote Lecture on the Next Convergence – Michael Spence (New York Stern and Standford University)
June 22, 2016 18:15 to 21:30
Session type: invited
Session 109: FBoF Keynote Lecture: Peter Arcidiacono (Duke University)
June 23, 2016 9:00 to 10:00
Session type: invited
Session 110: BoI – Carlo Giannini Memorial Lecture: Andrew Patton (Duke University)
June 23, 2016 12:00 to 13:00
Session type: invited
Session 111: Special Keynote Lecture on Oil Booms and Busts and the Global Economy – Hashem Pesaran (Cambridge University & USC Dornsife)
June 23, 2016 18:15 to 21:30
Aula Magna
[slides]
Session type: invited
Session 112: CCA Keynote Lecture: Giorgio Primiceri (Northwestern University)
June 24, 2016 9:00 to 10:00
Session type: invited
Session 113: SIdE/IEA Keynote Lecture: Francesca Molinari (Cornell University)
June 24, 2016 12:00 to 13:00
Aula Magna
Session type: invited
Session 114: DEMS Keynote Lecture: Aureo de Paula (University College London)
June 25, 2016 9:00 to 10:00
Aula Magna
Session type: invited
Session 115: Poster session: Micro
June 23, 2016 13:30 to 14:15
Session type: poster
Lifetime Income Inequality: quantile treatment effect of retirement on the distribution of lifetime income.
[slides]
By Malgorzata Karolina Kozlowska; Tor Vergata University of Rome
   presented by: Malgorzata Karolina Kozlowska, Tor Vergata University of Rome
Catching-up, leapfrogging, and falling-back in economic growth – A nonparametric approach
By Harry Haupt; University of Passau
Joachim Schnurbus; University of Passau
Willi Semmler; New School NY, University of Bielefeld
   presented by: Harry Haupt, University of Passau
Backward Imputation of Financial Household Wealth
[slides]
By Raun Ooijen; University of Groningen, Netspar
Rob Alessie; University of Groningen
   presented by: Raun Van Ooijen, University of Groningen
Identification and Estimation of Spatial Autoregressive Models with Common Factors
By Cynthia Yang; University of Southern California
   presented by: Cynthia Yang, University of Southern California
A Spatial-Filtering Zero-Inflated Approach to the Estimation of the Gravity Model of Trade
By Rodolfo Metulini; Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna
Roberto Patuelli; University of Bologna
Daniel Griffith; University of Texas at Dallas
   presented by: Roberto Patuelli, University of Bologna
Auctioning Charitable Giving: An Investigation of the Revenue Effect of Donation in Online Auctions
By Michele Fioretti; University of Southern California
   presented by: Michele Fioretti, University of Southern California and USC Dornsife INET
Why do Ugandan NGO diversify? Pecuniary and Private Benefits
By Canh Thien Dang; University of Nottingham
   presented by: Canh Thien Dang, University of Nottingham
Would you vote for me if I lower your taxes?
By Matteo Alpino; University of Oslo
   presented by: Matteo Alpino, University of Oslo
Bias in Estimating the Tax-Price Elasticity of Charity Donations on Survey Data
By Peter Backus; University of Manchester
Nicky Grant; University of Manchester
   presented by: Peter Backus, University of Manchester
Household Mortgage Choice with Dual-rate VRMs and Short-term FRMs
By Katya Kartashova; Bank of Canada
   presented by: Katya Kartashova, Bank of Canada
Congestion in the maternity ward: Keep calm and call the surgeon
By Gabriel Facchini; European University Institute
   presented by: Gabriel Facchini, European University Institute
Session 116: Poster — Macro/Finance/Time Series
June 24, 2016 13:30 to 14:15
Session type: poster
The Macroeconomic Implications of Credit Rating Shocks in Southern Europe: Identification through Narrative Approach
By Germano Ruisi; Queen Mary, University of London
   presented by: Germano Ruisi, Queen Mary, University of London
IMF programs and sensitivity to external shocks: a Bayesian VAR approach
By Mirela Miescu; PhD student at Queen Mary University of London YES POSTER
   presented by: Mirela Miescu, PhD student at Queen Mary University of London YES POSTER
Nowcasting with Big Data: is Google useful in Presence of other Information?
By Xinyuan Li; London Business School
   presented by: Xinyuan Li, London Business School
Testing and Selecting Local Proper Scoring Rules
[slides]
By Emilio Zanetti Chini; University of Pavia
   presented by: Emilio Zanetti Chini, University of Pavia
Nowcasting Mexican GDP
By Alberto Caruso; Universitè Libre de Bruxelles
   presented by: Alberto Caruso, Universitè Libre de Bruxelles
Macroeconomic stress{testing with nonlinear BVARs
By Sinem Hacioglu Hoke; Bank of England
Ching Wai Chiu; Bank of England
   presented by: Sinem Hacioglu Hoke, Bank of England
Estimating the effects of global uncertainty in open economies
By Silvia Delrio; Ca’ Foscari University of Venice
   presented by: Silvia Delrio, Ca’ Foscari University of Venice
News Shocks: Different Effects in Boom and Recession?
By Maria Bolboaca
Sarah Fischer; University of Bern
   presented by: Sarah Fischer, University of Bern
Nowcasting the Japanese economy
By Daniela Bragoli; Università Cattolica Milano
   presented by: Daniela Bragoli, Università Cattolica Milano
A Dynamic Multi-Level Factor Model with Long-Range Dependence
By Carlos Rodríguez Caballero; CREATES. Aarhus University
Yunus Emre Ergemen; CREATES, Aarhus University
   presented by: Carlos Rodríguez Caballero, CREATES. Aarhus University
Inflation uncertainty, disagreement and monetary policy: Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters
By Matthias Hartmann; Heidelberg University
Alexander Glas; Heidelberg University
   presented by: Alexander Glas, Heidelberg University
The Time Varying Transmission of Monetary Policy Surprises
By Pascal Paul; University of Oxford
   presented by: Pascal Paul, University of Oxford
An entropy-based early warning indicator for systemic risk
By Monica Billio; Università di Venezia
Roberto Casarin; University Ca’ Foscari of Venice
Michele Costola; Ca’ Foscari University of Venice
   presented by: Michele Costola, Ca’ Foscari University of Venice
Global Currency Hedging with Dynamic Copulas
By Sander Barendse; Erasmus University Rotterdam
   presented by: Sander Barendse, Erasmus University Rotterdam
Optimal linear prediction of stochastic trends (and cycles)
By Alessandro Giovannelli; Università di Roma Tor Vergata
Tommaso Proietti; Università degli Studi di Roma
   presented by: Alessandro Giovannelli, Università di Roma Tor Vergata
U.S. Wage Growth in the Aftermath of Deep Recessions: The Roles of Inflation and Unemployment
By Luiggi Donayre; University of Minnesota – Duluth
Irina Panovska; Lehigh University
   presented by: Luiggi Donayre, University of Minnesota – Duluth
Evaluating market’s contribution to price discovery for High-Frequeny Co-listed assets
By Christian Nguenang; Toulouse School of Economics
   presented by: Christian Nguenang, Toulouse School of Economics
Mixed-frequency models for tracking short-term economic developments in Switzerland
By Alain Galli; Swiss National Bank and University of Bern
Christian Hepenstrick; Swiss National Bank
Rolf Scheufele; Swiss National Bank
   presented by: Christian Hepenstrick, Swiss National Bank

 

Index of Participants
Legend: C=chair, P=Presenter, D=Discussant

# Participant Roles in Conference
1 Aastveit, Knut Are P90
2 Abay, Kibrom P19
3 Abbate, Angela P40
4 Abe, Yukiko P54
5 Abi Morshed, Alaa P86
6 Adamopoulou, Effrosyni P66
7 Aktas, Koray P36
8 Al-Sabah, khansa P12
9 Alessie, Rob P13
10 Alexeev, Vitali P10
11 Aliprantis, Dionissi P12
12 Alpino, Matteo P115
13 Altavilla, Carlo P30
14 Amand, Marnix P72
15 Amisano, Gianni P7
16 Anatolyev, Stanislav P89
17 Andreou, Elena P86
18 Aoki, Yu P54
19 Arduini, Tiziano P70
20 Atella, Vincenzo P44
21 Avdic, Daniel P44
22 Aydede, Yigit P54
23 Bacchiocchi, Emanuele P93
24 Backman, Claes P31
25 Backus, Peter P115
26 Baiardi, Donatella P59
27 Baillie, Richard P8
28 Banerjee, Anindya P48
29 Barbaglia, Luca P83
30 barbarino, alessandro P47
31 Barendse, Sander P116
32 Barrdear, John P40
33 Bartalotti, Otavio P79
34 Bauer, Gregory P15
35 Been, Jim P46
36 Benini, Giacomo P106
37 Benzoni, Luca P77
38 Bergholt, Drago P34
39 Bertoni, Marco P13
40 Bessec, Marie P64
41 Bhalotra, Sonia P1
42 Bharati, Tushar P94
43 Bianchi, Daniele P39
44 Bianchi, Francesco P9
45 Bjornland, Hilde P90
46 Bléhaut, Marianne P31
47 Bluhm, Richard P19
48 Bonomolo, Paolo P14
49 Bordon, Paola P55
50 Boswijk, Peter P10
51 Botosaru, Irene P56
52 Braccini, Lorenzo P77
53 Bragoli, Daniela P116
54 braione, manuela P52
55 Brownlees, Christian P70
56 Brunetti, Celso P33
57 Brutti, Zelda P82
58 Bucher-Koenen, Tabea P105
59 Busetti, Fabio P11
60 Canepa, Alessandra P23
61 Cao, Shuo P35
62 Caporin, Massimiliano P77
63 Carlomagno, Guillermo P95
64 Carriero, Andrea P84
65 Carrino, Ludovico P44
66 Caruso, Alberto P116
67 Cascaldi-Garcia, Danilo P35
68 Castro, Juan F. P21
69 Catania, Leopoldo P50
70 Cavallo, Michele P84
71 Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio P23
72 Chang, Yoosoon P42
73 Chauvet, Marcelle P26
74 Chen, Han P75
75 Chevillon, Guillaume P60
76 Chitre, Chetan P94
77 Cho, Sung-Jin P19
78 Chu, Chi-Yang P37
79 Chudik, Alexander P22
80 Chyruk, Olena P15
81 Ciacci, Riccardo P92
82 Cimadomo, Jacopo P26
83 Cipollini, Andrea P51
84 Commault, Jeanne P2
85 Conrad, Christian P96
86 Conti, Antonio P93
87 Cornea-Madeira, Adriana P17
88 Corradi, Valentina P74
89 Costola, Michele P116
90 Crossley, Thomas P19
91 d’Addona, Stefano P34
92 Dalderop, Jeroen P89
93 Daminato, Claudio P91
94 Dang, Canh Thien P115
95 Dany, Geraldine P104
96 Davezies, Laurent P79
97 de Bresser, Jochem P105
98 De Nadai, Michele P36
99 De Vos, Ignace P58
100 De Winne, Jasmien P9
101 Del Negro, Marco P43
102 Delle Monache, Davide P47
103 Delrio, Silvia P116
104 Denderski, Piotr P80
105 Depalo, Domenico P24
106 Di Addario, Sabrina P56
107 Diaz, Carlos P86
108 DiCecio, Riccardo P38
109 Donayre, Luiggi P116
110 Dong, Yingying P85
111 Drepper, Bettina P17
112 Dunbar, Geoffrey P4
113 Dvorkin, Maximiliano P34
114 Ellwanger, Reinhard P83
115 Enders, Zeno P14
116 Eraslan, Sercan P96
117 Erdemlioglu, Deniz P10
118 Ergemen, Yunus Emre P88
119 Estrada, Ricardo P36
120 Exterkate, Peter P11
121 Facchini, Gabriel P115
122 Fachin, Stefano P88
123 Fanelli, Luca P75
124 Fang, Ying P58
125 Ferman, Bruno P102
126 Ferroni, Filippo P93
127 Fervers, Lukas P45
128 Figueres, Juan P61
129 Fioretti, Michele P115
130 Fiori, Giuseppe P97
131 Fiorini, Mario P79
132 Fischer, Sarah P116
133 Foerster, Andrew P43
134 Forneron, Jean-Jacques P63
135 Foroni, Claudia P49
136 Fossati, Sebastian P41
137 Frey, Christoph P103
138 Furlanetto, Francesco P5
139 Furtuna, Oana P14
140 Fusari, Nicola P96
141 gallo, giampiero P67
142 Galvao, Ana Beatriz P38
143 Gautier, Eric P70
144 Gayle, George-Levi P29
145 Gätjen, Rebekka P57
146 Gómez-Loscos, Ana P64
147 Giacomini, Raffaella P63
148 Giannone, Domenico P18
149 Gilraine, Michael P94
150 Giovannelli, Alessandro P116
151 Girardi, Daniele P59
152 Girotti, Mattia P25
153 Giudici, Paolo P100
154 Glas, Alexander P116
155 Goncalves, Silvia P16
156 Gonzalez, Fidel P68
157 Gonzalo, Jesus P16
158 Grassi, Stefano P60
159 Gravert, Jan Hendrik P69
160 Greenwald, Daniel P104
161 Gresnigt, Francine P100
162 Grosse Steffen, Christoph P87
163 Gualdani, Cristina P4
164 Guber, Raphael P21
165 Gungor, Sermin P51
166 Hachula, Michael P30
167 Hacioglu Hoke, Sinem P116
168 Hajzler, Christopher P99
169 Haliassos, Michael C12, P12
170 Hamidi Sahneh, Mehdi P28
171 Hansen, Bruce P18
172 Haug, Alfred P73
173 Haupt, Harry P115
174 Hecq, Alain P50
175 Heinisch, Dominik P4
176 Henderson, Daniel P85
177 Herrmann, Fabian P35
178 Hillebrand, Eric P88
179 Hirose, Yasuo P75
180 Holm, Martin P2
181 Homrighausen, Pia P45
182 Hory, Marie-Pierre P73
183 Huber, Stefanie P20
184 Hubrich, Kirstin P9
185 Huidrom, Raju P73
186 Ibragimov, Rustam P67
187 Iskhakov, Fedor P91
188 Issler, Joao P33
189 Istrefi, Klodiana P61
190 Jarocinski, Marek P40
191 Jentsch, Carsten P50
192 Jia, Zhiyang P69
193 Joëts, Marc P83
194 Jung, Dawoon P105
195 Justiniano, Alejandro P43
196 Karanasos, Menelaos P95
197 Kartashova, Katya P115
198 Kascha, Christian P100
199 Kaufmann, Sylvia P65
200 Kösler, Markus P10
201 Keijsers, Bart P77
202 Kim, Kyoo il P25
203 Kitagawa, Toru P7
204 Knüppel, Malte P62
205 Knoef, Marike P46
206 Kole, Erik P51
207 Koutroumpis, Panagiotis P98
208 Kozbur, Damian P37
209 Kozlowska, Malgorzata Karolina P115
210 Krause, Thomas P31
211 Krehlik, Tomas P57
212 Kruse, Robinson P41
213 Kurozumi, Eiji P8
214 Laffers, Lukas P24
215 Lahiri, Kajal P68
216 Lakdawala, Aeimit P5
217 lalanne, marie P4
218 Laliotis, Ioannis P68
219 Larsen, Vegard P87
220 Lastauskas, Povilas P65
221 Lavergne, Pascal P37
222 Le Roux, Jeanne P2
223 Lee, Jungyoon P17
224 Lee, Ying-Ying P85
225 Leiva-Leon, Danilo P80
226 Lenza, Michele P59
227 Levell, Peter P20
228 Li, Xinyuan P116
229 Li, Chuhui P44
230 Liang, Chong P103
231 Lieli, Robert P62
232 Lombardi, Marco P90
233 Loria, Francesca P23
234 Lozej, Matija P104
235 Lu, Zhentong P25
236 Luciani, Matteo P16
237 Lunsford, Kurt P28
238 Luoto, Jani P101
239 Lutkepohl, Helmut P76
240 Lychagin, Sergey P36
241 Magnusson, Leandro P97
242 Mairesse, Jacques P32
243 Malec, Peter P52
244 Manner, Hans P41
245 Marcellino, Massimiliano P6
246 Marchenko, Maria P66
247 Martin, Gael P63
248 Masolo, Riccardo Maria P75
249 Massacci, Daniele P47
250 Mastrobuoni, Giovanni P92
251 Mastromarco, Camilla P3
252 Mazrekaj, Deni P3
253 Mésonnier, Jean-Stéphane P30
254 McCracken, Michael P74
255 Meango, Romuald P82
256 Megalokonomou, Rigissa P21
257 Melin, Olena P39
258 Melo, Ligia P3
259 Melosi, Leonardo P43
260 Meng, Xiaochun P67
261 Mertens, Elmar P98
262 Mesters, Geert P65
263 Michail, Nektarios P5
264 Miescu, Mirela P116
265 Milunovich, George P76
266 Miniaci, Raffaele P78
267 Miranda Gualdrón, Karen Alejandra P106
268 Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia P61
269 Mittag, Nikolas P32
270 Modugno, Michele P93
271 Mogliani, Matteo P38
272 Monti, Francesca P99
273 Moon, Hyungsik Roger P22
274 Morana, Claudio P8
275 Moreno, Antonio P15
276 Mouabbi, Sarah P98
277 Mumtaz, Haroon P27
278 Murro, Pierluigi P72
279 Natvik, Gisle P20
280 nguenang, christian P116
281 Nguimkeu, Pierre P78
282 Nibbering, Didier P101
283 Nishimura, Yoshinori P13
284 Nocera, Andrea P56
285 Norets, Andriy P7
286 NYAWA WOMO, Serge Luther P52
287 O’Donnell, Christopher P3
288 Opschoor, Anne P67
289 Ortega, Eva P86
290 Osili, Una P12
291 Oyenubi, Adeola P53
292 Paarsch, Harry P78
293 Paccagnini, Alessia P42
294 Pacini, David P85
295 Pagani, Laura P55
296 Pan, Jiening P89
297 Paredes, Joan P23
298 Parisi, Laura P96
299 Patuelli, Roberto P115
300 Paul, Pascal P116
301 Pehlivan, Ayse P72
302 Pelagatti, Matteo P95
303 Pelenis, Justinas P11
304 Pelgrin, Florian P28
305 Pellegrino, Giovanni P87
306 Pereda-Fernández, Santiago P56
307 Perez, Mitzi P105
308 Pesaran, M. Hashem P16
309 Petrova, Katerina P101
310 Petrunia, Robert P78
311 Petrunyk, Inna P45
312 Pettenuzzo, Davide P38
313 Pfeifer, Gregor P94
314 Pica, Giovanni P55
315 Pick, Andreas P62
316 Piffer, Michele P76
317 Pigini, Claudia P54
318 Pirschel, Inske P26
319 Podstawski, Maximilian P27
320 Poinas, François P29
321 Pora, Pierre P29
322 Prieto, Esteban P5
323 Proietti, Tommaso P51
324 Prokhorov, Artem P37
325 Quaedvlieg, Rogier P15
326 Ravazzolo, Francesco P49
327 Rünstler, Gerhard P33
328 Reese, Simon P58
329 Reusens, Peter P71
330 Ricci, Lorenzo P84
331 Riddell, Chris P53
332 Rime, Dagfinn P49
333 Rivolta, Giulia P80
334 Rodríguez Caballero, Carlos P116
335 Rodriguez-Poo, Juan P17
336 Rossi, Barbara P74
337 Rostam-Afschar, Davud P2
338 Rothe, Christoph P79
339 Rubin, Mirco P48
340 Ruisi, Germano P116
341 Sala, Luca P28
342 Sanchez, Raul P1
343 Sandor, Zsolt P25
344 Sandqvist, Anna Pauliina P64
345 Sant’Anna, Pedro H. C. P24
346 Santangelo, Giulia P102
347 Sarafidis, Vasilis P22
348 Sarzosa, Miguel P92
349 Scharnagl, Michael P104
350 Scheufele, Rolf P116
351 Schmitz, Sebastian P69
352 Schnücker, Annika P84
353 Schneider, Ulrich P91
354 Schreiber, Sven P95
355 Schwaab, Bernd P71
356 Scotti, Chiara P80
357 Seifert, Stefanie P81
358 Sekhposyan, Tatevik P6
359 Semykina, Anastasia P81
360 Sengul, Gonul P59
361 Sergeyev, Dmitriy P73
362 Sheng, Xuguang P27
363 Sheveleva, Lena P72
364 Si, Wei P21
365 Sichlimiris, Spyridon P71
366 Siliverstovs, Boriss P74
367 Simoni, Anna P7
368 Simonsen, Lasse P31
369 Sinha, Arunima P30
370 Skoulakis, Georgios P89
371 Smith, Michael P100
372 Snudden, Stephen P41
373 Soberon, Alexandra P106
374 Soofi Siavash, Soroosh P48
375 Sorge, Marco P14
376 Steigerwald, Douglas P8
377 Stella, Andrea P20
378 Stevanovic, Dalibor P48
379 Sunder, Naveen P81
380 Sundström, David P32
381 Taheri Sanjani, Marzie P40
382 Tamayo, Jorge P66
383 Tambalotti, Andrea P9
384 Tasci, Murat P65
385 Tealdi, Cristina P55
386 Tedeschi, Simone P46
387 Tetenov, Aleksey P24
388 Tirelli, Patrizio P42
389 Toews, Gerhard P45
390 Tolan, Songül P82
391 Traum, Nora P42
392 Tristani, Oreste P35
393 Troster, Victor P50
394 Urquiza, Juan P90
395 Valls Pereira, Pedro P39
396 van den Berg, Gerard P1
397 Van Ooijen, Raun P115
398 van Soest, Arthur P91
399 Varga, Gyorgy P39
400 Velinov, Anton P101
401 VERA VALDES, JOSE P60
402 Verdier, Valentin P66
403 Verona, Fabio P97
404 Villacorta, Lucciano P58
405 Villanueva, Ernesto P81
406 Voia, Marcel P68
407 Wagner, Martin P47
408 Wahl, Fabian P53
409 Wallen, Jonathan P62
410 Wanengkirtyo, Boromeus P33
411 Wang, Wuwei P27
412 Webb, Matthew P102
413 Welteke, Clara P69
414 Wesołowski, Grzegorz P99
415 Westphal, Matthias P82
416 Williams, Jenny P92
417 Windmeijer, Frank P1
418 Winkelmann, Lars P98
419 Winter, Joachim C1, P32
420 Wolf, Alexander P46
421 Wolf, Martin P71
422 Wolff, François-Charles P102
423 Wozniak, Tomasz P76
424 Yang, Cynthia P115
425 Yao, Wenying P103
426 Yilmaz, Kamil P57
427 Yin, Shou-Yung P22
428 Yoo, Donghoon P97
429 Zacchia, Paolo P70
430 Zachariadis, Marios P34
431 Zaman, Saeed P99
432 Zanetti Chini, Emilio P116
433 Zhang, Xiaohui P106
434 Zhao, Zhiqi P29
435 Zhao, Xueyan P13
436 Zhao, Xiaolu P52
437 Zhong, Molin P6
438 Zikes, Filip P103
439 Zimic, Srecko P57